At the current rate of compute financialization, CDOs on GPU-backed leases are likely coming to market. Non-investment-grade neocloud operators with 8-9 figure budgets are struggling to secure financing for under double-digit interest rates, and bundling is a short-term solution as a liquid residual value curve develops.
A GPU-backed CDO could be structured as a portfolio of GPU leases across operators, chip generations, and geographic locations. The tranches could be
• Senior notes sized to contracted utilization and investment-grade offtakers
• Mezzanine notes that take on contract renewal risk
• Subordinated/equity notes that absorb residual value depreciation
Ratings agencies, including startups specializing in the assessment of compute quality, face the challenge of modeling default correlation with very little historical data. Any analysis would need to take into account offtaker credit-worthiness, GPU-hour rental prices, new accelerator manufacturing, memory and electricity costs, and political factors affecting buildouts.
Listed compute futures and options are the solution the US financial system is waiting for, but that shouldn’t prevent financial institutions from deploying every available innovation to address the growing credit crisis, even if inputs are nascent.