New York is in trouble. Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman 50-41 in the new Siena poll of likely New York voters. That’s a 9-point race in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one. Hochul is underperforming. She still looks poised to win, and that’s terrible for New Yorkers. Hochul has wasted countless billions bailing out New York City and funding services for migrants who shouldn’t even be in the United States. She keeps taxes high on Americans while failing to deliver the infrastructure my state desperately needs. Four years ago in this same September window, Siena had Hochul up 54-37 on Lee Zeldin. She won that election by 6 points. Bruce Blakeman is already closer than Zeldin was with six weeks left. It’s still not enough. Hochul still owns New York City, 61-27. The downstate suburbs are 48-46. Upstate is Blakeman 47-44. Independents are with Blakeman 44-39. August Siena was 49-39. The lead barely moved. New York is not a swing state. A single-digit governor’s race here means Hochul’s record on crime, costs, and migrants is landing with voters who used to shrug. Blakeman still has to close the gap. Hochul has not put this away, but time is running out for Republicans to save the Empire State. That’s why so many people keep leaving for other states. Siena, Sept. 11–17, N=1,144 likely voters, ±3.9.