Monetary policy works with long & variable lags.
It doesn't drill oil.
It doesn't resolve geopolitical supply shocks.
A 0.25% hike, when the parts of inflation the Fed actually controls have their lowest inflation readings in years, accomplishes nothing other than posture.
No one else is talking about this.
I'm more than happy to be the only one.
This is CPI inflation for all items less energy.
The August data just came in at +2.47% YoY, the lowest reading since March 2021 (+1.91%).
There is NO inflation problem, as far as the Fed is concerned.
I've been saying it for months now...
The market doesn't give a single solitary fuck about inflation.
Why?
Because it's all energy-based inflation & the spike in crude oil has NOT created a rippling effect throughout other CPI metrics.
It's literally in the data.
Just look.
Saylor bought?
After selling the literal lows?
Nuke it -10% to -15%.
Flush sentiment.
Retest key levels.
Then continue higher.
Good luck and embrace nuance.
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Bitcoin just flashed a bullish signal.
Going back to 2020, it has only happened 7 other times.
Specifically, the 21-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA.
In those 7 other cases:
• The average 6-month return = +43.4%
• The average 1-year return = +153.5%
Good luck to all.
Bitcoin just flashed a bullish signal.
Going back to 2020, it has only happened 7 other times.
Specifically, the 21-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA.
In those 7 other cases:
• The average 6-month return = +43.4%
• The average 1-year return = +153.5%
Good luck to all.