Threadguy says nobody has any clue what the Fed is going to do anymore “There's $130 million bet on this, and a lot of money is on the line.” “For years, the actual rate decision announced at every FOMC meeting didn't matter because it was already priced into the market weeks in advance through forward guidance. The market reaction was driven by what the Fed signaled about the future, not by the decision itself.” “Now we're entering a regime where what the Fed actually decides at each meeting will be the marginal market driver again. The Fed won't be spelling it out for us anymore, and it's now up to rate speculators to analyze the economic data and come to their own conclusions. Expect higher rate volatility and the next few meetings to be true 50/50 toss-ups.”