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Dan Niles
@DanielTNiles
Founder of Niles Investment Management, Tech Nerd, Bad Tennis Player, Proud Dad. Posts are for information purposes only & never investment advice.
Joined October 2013
93 Following    133.7K Followers
Great info by @SaraEisen. I was wondering why the stock action in many names was akin to the time before Situational Awareness was forced to sell its public positions to Citadel with AI beneficiaries getting hit while the ones in the cross hairs rallied. As a reminder, the Morgan Stanley TMT (Tech Media and Telecom) Momentum Index had a decline of 54% from 6/22-7/29. On 7/30, following the acquisition of the public portfolio of Situational Awareness by Citadel, the TMT index rebounded a record 19%. The rally continued with a total gain of 35% from 7/29 through 8/17 for TMT. But since Monday 8/17, this index has fallen 19% as of intra-day Friday 8/21. This letter by Ken Griffin now explains why it felt like there was some other large fund unwinding the same positions that SA had because in fact it was the SA positions. With more than 80% of the unwind finished in ~3 weeks, it would imply this should be mostly over by next week…At which point I can go back to worrying about 1) the median 10% drawdown typically seen on the S&P from peak to trough during 7/30 -11/9 in mid-term years since 1990 and 2) related to this, the US Treasury trying to bring down long-term yields and the bond market saying it will not work with yields across the curve now roughly flat to 6 bps above the levels on Tuesday prior to these actions.
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According to a letter I obtained that Ken Griffin just sent to investors on the purchase of Situational Awareness’s portfolio, “to date, we have successfully shed more than 80% of the aggregate risk from the original portfolio. We have completed nearly 100 block trades totaling over $4b in market value.” Citadel’s Wellington fund finished up the month 5.94%, YTD up 12%
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