$CRCL is up 28% from the bottom and i think it continues to outperform from here there are two consensus views that are wildly off and the market is finally starting to realize it: 1. the first is that stablecoin economics aren't viable because issuers will continue leaking value to distributors, thereby capping equity upside. this was a growing concern in 2023, but has since become a consensus take and, quite frankly, i think it's mid-curve. i'll explain why after the second view. 2. the second is that TradFi incumbents will enter, compete with circle, and ultimately cap its growth. this view was on full display after the $OUSD announcement. on the announcement, circle's stock crashed 15% and the timeline panicked about the coming consortium stablecoin and TradFi competition more broadly. It ultimately culminated in a slight from Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, who said “ready player two,” implying that Circle is not even in the ranks to compete with Tether. However, both views ignore Circle's most valuable asset: trust. Trust lies at the center of every financial empire, but its easy to overlook since its intangible relative to revenue or balance-sheet size. When J. Pierpont Morgan of $JPM became the default lending facility for the railroad industry, he did so by becoming the trusted dealmaker between parties, not by generating the most interest income or maintaining the largest retail deposit base. I might not trust you, and you might not trust me, but we could both trust J. Pierpont Morgan. I believe Circle is emerging as a similar liaison between crypto natives and TradFi institutions. Despite Tether’s USDT having a larger market cap, Circle’s USDC is the preferred dollar instrument for onchain credit. That is a useful proxy for who will control the next leg of stablecoin market-cap growth: onchain credit. I think the payments leg has largely already been established. Circle is currently sharing reserve income with distribution partners, but does that really matter if their end goal is to become the dominant dollar instrument? Branding, trust, and liquidity matter just as much as distribution. Every stablecoin was fighting to become Hyperliquid’s preferred stablecoin, but Hyperliquid ultimately chose Circle’s USDC because of the liquidity and security associated with its brand. Whichever stablecoin issuer emerges as the trusted dollar instrument has the opportunity to connect previously disconnected economic participants, creating opportunities that were previously not feasible (machine payments & underserved currency corridors). I don’t think investors are properly pricing in the fact that Circle’s reputation coupled with institutional distribution makes Arc a fertile ground for new economic experiments