Kai Capital
@Double0Capital
Thesis Driven Swing Trader | ~300% net returns in 18 months / 75% YTD
$PENG at 39 → sold @ 86
$SNDK at 230 → sold @ 1770
$KRKNF at 2.6 → sold @ 6.1
NFA DYOR
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Everyone's watching the HBM gap but I think that's not it. CXMT's HBM is captive to Huawei, a market MU is already banned from, so no TAM overlap.
The threat is commodity DRAM, but the number people quote is wafer capacity roughly at 11%. By bits CXMT is roughly at 9%. Older nodes, fewer bits per wafer. Wafer share flatters the threat.
And 15% isn't the scary number, it's essentially the survival number. Counterpoint calls it the threshold CXMT has to cross to fund next-gen tech, and has them at 11% in 2028.
Supply storm is a 2028-29 question, not a today question.
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