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James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
Chief Market Strategist @WellingtonAltus. PhD Econ. Astute, observations and conclusions. Personal views. Not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Joined November 2019
24 Following    123.4K Followers
The Fed’s false choice between growth and price stability. Oh look deficits matter! No one should be surprised. Debt levels matter again because they never stopped mattering. The Biden administration and its progressive-Keynesian allies acted as though fiscal arithmetic had been repealed. Their embrace of Modern Monetary Theory was not a serious economic strategy; it was a political licence for endless borrowing, deficit spending, and the fiction that public debt carries no consequence. Wall Street and the Federal Reserve largely stood idle while MMT became fashionable in Washington. The program was carried into government by former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, as Treasury Secretary, and former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, as a senior White House economic official. Rather than challenge the premise that deficits could expand indefinitely without cost, the financial and policy establishment accommodated it. They treated debt-financed demand as economic management and dismissed concerns about inflation, interest costs, and fiscal credibility as outdated orthodoxy. The consequences are now plain: persistent inflation pressures, elevated borrowing costs, distorted capital allocation, and a federal debt burden that narrows every serious policy choice. This was not unforeseeable. It was the predictable result of expanding demand through borrowing and monetary accommodation while neglecting the economy’s ability to produce. There is no escape through another spending binge, financial repression, or central-bank accommodation. The only viable route out is real growth: more private investment, abundant energy, more housing, more industrial capacity, faster permitting, competitive taxes, and policies that reward work, savings, and production. America must rebuild the supply side rather than finance consumption with borrowed money. The Federal Reserve shares responsibility. For too long, it has regarded strong growth as an inflation risk while treating productive capacity as largely fixed. Its Keynesian reflex is to manage aggregate demand stimulate when growth weakens and suppress when prices rise rather than recognize that productivity, capital formation, and expanded supply form the durable basis of price stability. Kevin Warsh deserves no automatic benefit of the doubt. The test is not whether he can speak about credibility and independence. It is whether he will reject the false choice between growth and price stability, confront fiscal dominance, and understand that supply-side expansion is not inflationary excess but the foundation of sustained prosperity. Simple question that needs to be answered: Under Warsh does the Fed’s reaction function change to view growth as good? Right now the answer is no. The Fed is uber hawkish, plan for a massive policy mistake.
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