Nick Almond(@DrNickA):Nope, it's a great regulatory capture tactic. Scaling laws dictate that each advancement of the frontier with a new major pre-training run (which coincidentally they've all just done) gets astronomically more expensive. Fable / Astra likely cost $2B to train, it's likely $10B next time and it's up only from there. "pacing the frontier" allows the labs to extract rents from their latest models for longer before a competitor steams past them rendering their multi-billion dollar models obsolete and they get forced into the next run. They simply agree not to do the next run and spend their money and time on product, distribution and lobbying governments to protect their moats.

2026.09.12 20:32

Nope, it's a great regulatory capture tactic. Scaling laws dictate that each advancement of the frontier with a new major pre-training run (which coincidentally they've all just done) gets astronomically more expensive. Fable / Astra likely cost $2B to train, it's likely $10B next time and it's up only from there. "pacing the frontier" allows the labs to extract rents from their latest models for longer before a competitor steams past them rendering their multi-billion dollar models obsolete and they get forced into the next run. They simply agree not to do the next run and spend their money and time on product, distribution and lobbying governments to protect their moats.

204

Forward to community

Most Popular Users