Lol, what?
Why would customers walk away from LTAs, forfeit billions of dollars of deposits they made at memory producers, and risk being left out of memory capacity allocations, while we know memory is crucial for AI, and robotics later on?
And that would be IF memory prices collapse, which is not going to happen any time soon. Memory contract prices are still projected to increase QoQ in Q4 FY2026, and will most likely rise moderately in 2027. In 2028-2030, we may see some corrections but nothing in the form of a price crash.
And this cycle is very different from any other past cycle due to HBM. Even if the amount of input wafers increases in the coming years, the amount of extra bits coming online may fall behind a bit due to HBM requiring 2.5-3x more bits per wafer than DRAM, HBM4E will require even 4x more bits per wafer.
Strange to see one of the largest memory bulls, who shares so much analysis on a daily basis, change his opinion based on how the shares trade.
I am long memory stocks and I am getting bent over today. But I don't change my opinion every week based on price action.
$SKHY $005930.KS $MU $SNDK $DRAM