Epoch AI(@EpochAIResearch):Will Huawei catch up to Nvidia by 2030? Almost certainly not. We analyzed Huawei’s chip roadmap and supply chain, from the Ascend 950 to its 3D-stacking bet and domestic HBM supply. Our estimate: Huawei will produce less than 4% of Nvidia's AI compute in 2026. Relying on domestic HBM alone, that share could fall to just 1% by 2028. 🧵

Epoch AI

@EpochAIResearch

Investigating the trajectory of AI for the benefit of society.

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Epoch AI@EpochAIResearch

2026.09.04 19:45

Will Huawei catch up to Nvidia by 2030? Almost certainly not. We analyzed Huawei’s chip roadmap and supply chain, from the Ascend 950 to its 3D-stacking bet and domestic HBM supply. Our estimate: Huawei will produce less than 4% of Nvidia's AI compute in 2026. Relying on domestic HBM alone, that share could fall to just 1% by 2028. 🧵