Using FDV to value hyperliquid:native doesn't make much sense.
We've been pretty vocal about this for a long time, yet we still see people relying on FDV over and over again.
We're glad
@HypeStrat has released a framework explaining how they calculate the Outstanding Token Supply (OTS) of HYPE, and we're happy to have contributed to the discussion.
Overall, we agree with the framework, but there are a couple of additional nuances worth highlighting.
First, based on Q1 figures, the Hyperliquid team has only claimed around 5% of the tokens they were entitled to through the vesting schedule. While we believe it makes sense to include the full contributor allocation in OTS, the reality is that a large portion of that supply is unlikely to hit the market anytime soon, which further reduces effective selling pressure.
Second, multiple HIP-3 deployers currently have 500,000 HYPE locked as part of the deployment requirements. Those tokens are included in OTS, but they are not freely tradable and therefore do not contribute to the actual float today.
This distinction is important. While OTS is the right framework for valuation purposes, the effective float is meaningfully lower.
More broadly, the key idea behind the framework is that future dilution should not be viewed in isolation. Community rewards and future emissions are intended to create value for the network. If deployed effectively, the value created should exceed the dilution introduced.
Put differently, the goal is for $1 of incentives to generate more than $1 of value and future buybacks.
Full article from
@JeroenNieuwkoop below.
Hyperliquid.