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Gaetano
@Gaetano2026
Photonics/Physical AI Company Coverage On Substack
Joined February 2025
572 Following    58.1K Followers
Sometimes the market gives us gifts $smtc After an awesome print & call, SMTC dipped in the 125 area Which is where it was right before the print But everything pointed in the other direction New ATH just hit Hopefully it breaks out, but regardless, very excited for the next few Q's
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$SMTC Man, this was a REALLY strong print / guide. $341.9M rev vs $328M guide, $0.71 EPS vs $0.61, and Data Center finally broke the $100M level I wanted. But the forward commentary got me stoked. DC went: Q1: $71.6M Q2: $100M Q3 guide: ~$145M That is +45% sequential next quarter and ~160% YoY. And they said their FY27 Data Center target is already fully booked, while FY28 is already “over 70% there.” Then 1.6T qualified EARLIER than management expected. They were being conservative because qualification timing is unpredictable, and now customers basically “want parts tomorrow.” Q3 should be the first meaningful 1.6T quarter. FiberEdge share is another one. They were ~18% at 800G two years ago. Now they are above 50%, designed into every major module provider they target, sole sourced in several, and expect 1.6T share to exceed 50% by FY-end. NPO was exactly what I wanted to hear too. They are now involved in roughly 10-15 programs across module makers and are expanding beyond just TIAs/drivers into a more complete solution. HieFo gain chips are shipping in volume, the original 3 anchor customers are increasing demand, and new customers are coming in. CopperEdge 1.6T volume deployment with the lead hyperscaler starts in Q4, while several onboard/active-backplane programs are apparently getting close to the finish line. Then the margins... Q3 adjusted GM guide is 58.3%. Excluding the cellular business they just sold: 63.9%. I think $500M of FY27 Data Center revenue is very achievable now. That would require ~$164M in Q4 after the ~$145M Q3 guide. And the crazy part is I still think we are early in the 2027 inflection I’ve been waiting for. This quarter basically strengthened every important part of my thesis.
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