🇺🇸 Everyone is watching Iran for the next market crash, but the real danger is that investors are recreating the leverage, speculation, and blind confidence that led to the Great Depression.
Gareth Soloway says that financial markets have become so addicted to easy money, leverage, and central bank rescues that they're now far more dangerous than the war.
Investors have spent years learning exactly the wrong lesson.
Every correction, panic, and sell-off has been followed by another rally to new highs.
An entire generation of investors now believes one thing: Just buy the dip.
They've never lived through a prolonged bear market, and they've never experienced a 1929-style collapse.
Many weren't even investing during the dot-com crash or the 2008 financial crisis.
As far as they're concerned, markets only move in one direction over time.
That psychology worries Gareth far more than the headlines coming out of the Middle East, and he pointed to South Korea as a warning.
A handful of AI-related stocks became so dominant that investors piled into leveraged ETFs, convinced the gains would never end.
When sentiment finally turned, leverage amplified the selling just as aggressively as it had amplified the rally, and the result was a brutal collapse.
His concern is that America has built the same structure, just on a vastly larger scale.
Every recession that should have cleared excesses from the system was met with lower interest rates, more borrowing, and more money printing.
Instead of allowing the economy to heal naturally, policymakers kept injecting another dose of stimulus, and it worked... until it didn't.
But Gareth doesn't think the market will collapse tomorrow.
In fact, he believes policymakers still have tools that could keep the system going for several more years.
But every intervention adds more debt, leverage, speculation, and makes the eventual adjustment even more violent.
His warning wasn't that Iran will crash the markets; it was that markets may already be sitting on a far bigger time bomb.
@GarethSoloway