Having spent a lot of time in this space since we traded our first bilateral H100 forward last month, @jvb_xyz’s points are bang on. I agree the market is likely to stay largely OTC-driven in the near term. Here’s my 2c: > The cash-settled market remains heavily constrained by the lack of liquid venues for market makers to lay off residual risk. > As a result, trades only clear when both sides can be sourced directly (true or close to matched principal). > The core problem is a severe imbalance: notional looking for bids (sellers) is orders of magnitude larger than notional seeking offers, and almost no one is willing to warehouse meaningful size. > This is driven by a fundamental mismatch: financial players want to sell forward (especially to hedge GPU-collateralised loans and improve financing terms), while the natural longs still primarily need the physical compute itself. > Another constraint is tenor risk. The bulk of sizeable swap demand sits in the 3-5 year tenor. > Without a reputable, established CCP to manage margin (especially on the short side), desks have to commit balance sheet directly with the knowledge that if a counterparty fails to meet a margin call, they’ll be left short an illiquid compute contract (with an existing obligation the other side)… > The creation of listed futures (CME/ICE/Architect) will therefore help build the necessary plumbing and give the market a realistic shot at maturity.