JPM: ASICs, Networking & WFE Take the Baton
→ AI infra remains supply-constrained, not demand-constrained. Cloud capex estimates keep moving higher, now at roughly $953B / $1.41T / $1.54T for 2026–28.
→ ASICs are taking a much bigger share of AI compute. JPM sees custom AI ASICs at $60–70B in 2026, growing 40–50%+ CAGR, with ASIC/XPU units overtaking GPUs by 2027.
→ Broadcom is central to this shift. Exposure spans Google, Meta, OpenAI, SoftBank/Arm and potentially Anthropic, with JPM modelling AVGO AI revenue at $58B → $135B → $245B from FY26–28.
→ OpenAI ASICs are already moving into reality. First silicon is out of fab and functioning, Gen 1 is on track for YE26/CY27, Gen 2 is taping out and Gen 3 design has started.
→ Networking is becoming another major bottleneck. Broadcom’s Tomahawk 6 is already sold out for CY27, with demand rising across switching, optics and SerDes.
→ The WFE cycle still looks very strong. JPM models +31% growth in 2026 and +38% in 2027, driven by TSMC N2/N3, DRAM capacity and broader AI fab buildouts.
→ The bottleneck is moving into the physical stack. JPM explicitly highlights cleanroom constraints as the primary WFE bottleneck, alongside packaging and tool availability.
→ Next phase is increasingly about ASICs, HBM, networking, packaging and manufacturing capacity.