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J.D.
@Jadzo1_
Coverage, calls, and market thoughts across Japan and the US.
Joined June 2023
469 Following    1.3K Followers
Japan's bubble in the 80s and subsequent balance sheet deterioration meant it was unable to sustain capex at a time when Korea was aggressively expanding, leading to the brutal loss of its memory industry during the Lost Decades. This loss, although painful perhaps has left it far better positioned/diversified than Korea for the eventual bear market that follows AI? Korea now finds itself in a tricky situation (note: Korea doesn't have the same credit expansion so spillover would probably not be 3 Lost Decades grim). EM's have a tendency to be commodity dependent (DRAM/NAND), have concentrated industries (~50% of KOSPI is memory names) and volatile capital flows (refer to post below). The risk is that an eventual memory bust spills beyond equities into export income, employment and domestic credit, particularly given Korea's high household debt, while capital outflows put further pressure on the won. However, hopefully a scenario more akin to Taiwan emerges, where even a >50% drawdown in equities can be endured without undermining the industry's ability to sustain capex and maintain its technological dominance, avoiding the fate Japan suffered.
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