AGENTIC FLOWS day 2.. more AI/RISK ON ... monster Z moves
*AGENTIC BUILDOUT: +$3.5bn NET (4 z move)
**INFERENCE CAPEX: +$2bn NET (3 z move)
***AI PICKS & SHOVELS: +$1.9bn NET (3 z move)
NET FLOWS:
- Every bar per stock: dollars traded is volume times price rolled up into the factor ... 2 roll ups
- Split it into buy/cover & sell/shorts: compare the bar's price change to how much that stock usually moves per minute... measured over its last 60 min (big up move relative to normal means most of the dollars count as buying. A big down move means most count as selling) A flat bar splits close to 50/50
- Net for that bar: buy/cover dollars minus sell/short dollars
Z SCORE IS CALCULATION HEAVY:
- Same minute NOT same day: at 2:15pm we compare today's flow so far... against flow up to 2:15pm on EACH PAST SESSION. That means a separate "normal" for every minute of the session, around 390 of them per factor...think of it like expanding but using stock bars
- Per window: we build those curves for 5D, 1M, 3M, YTD and 1Y. Each window needs a minimum number of clean sessions, for example 17 for 1M and 60 for 1Y
- Robustness: we use the median and the typical deviation from it, not the average and standard deviation. One freak session like an index rebalance or a half day can't wreck the baseline