I bought $ZEC on the wick down during the June bug, still adding some at current prices.
My thesis is this is the first time TradFi can actually touch ZEC with size through ETF and they will.
> Zcash inherited Bitcoin's core monetary policy: 21M cap, PoW, halvings
> bolted on the privacy layer BTC can never really retrofit
But privacy isn't really competing with Bitcoin's scarcity thesis.
It's asking what happens if people eventually want Bitcoin-like scarcity without broadcasting their entire financial graph forever.
> 28.7% shielded supply now
Going from 8% to almost 30% of supply choosing privacy is a pretty meaningful change in what the asset actually is.
After a bug wiped 50% off the price in June, people didn't permanently flee the private pool once they got scared. They came back and grew it again.
ZEC still got huge upside while being only around ~1% of Bitcoin's market cap.
Grayscale's own scenario math has 2% / 5% / 10% landing at ~$1.6K / $4K / $8K.
Makes sense to me. Privacy only needs to become large enough for staying at ~1% forever to start looking wrong.
Also thinking $ZEC moving can rotate degen attention into some betas:
> monero:native: mandatory-private cash that survived multiple CEX delistings and now gets a major access unlock through native THORChain swaps.
> $FOLD: ciphernodes bond FOLD to run verifiable encrypted compute using FHE + ZK + MPC for private auctions, voting and shared data.
> ethereum:0xa12cc123ba206d4031d1c7f6223d1c2ec249f4f3: FHE rails that let DeFi compute on encrypted balances across existing chains. $595M through the wrap boundary + 1,000 confidential transfers/sec benchmark.
> $ARX: best privacy play on Sol for encrypted DeFi, payroll and AI, with 1M+ confidential computations already processed.
Gonna be interesting watching how much of this market eventually decides it doesn't want the whole world watching every wallet move.