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Bottleneck Capital
@Klaudnin3
L/S TMT Investor, tweets are not investment advice.
7.5K Following    4.5K Followers
Nobody wants to hear the bear case on the two best-run companies in security, so here it is anyway. When GPT-6 Astra launched this month, OpenAI had an outside evaluator run it through FrontierCyber, a benchmark of real offensive security challenges. Astra solved 86 of 226. The model one generation earlier solved 34. That is a 2.5x capability jump in a single step, and neither model has touched the Elite tier yet. The curve is doing the opposite of slowing down. Now look at who is shipping. OpenAI has a cyber platform called Daybreak. Anthropic has one called Mythos. OpenAI is running a program to put frontier cyber models in trusted hands. And Proofpoint, an incumbent security vendor, integrated OpenAI's cyber models into its own security operations this month. Read that again. The incumbent is now paying the lab for the intelligence layer it used to own. That is the margin story. Security vendors sell detection content and the workflow around it at software gross margins. When the detection intelligence lives inside a frontier model, the vendor turns into a distribution channel with an inference toll attached. The scarce asset commoditizes, the toll flows to the labs, and seat counts follow SOC headcount, which is the first thing the agents eat. The consensus answer is that AI is a tailwind for security spending. Nikesh Arora said exactly that two weeks ago, and he is probably right about the spending. What the spending does not tell you is where the margin lands. Right now $CRWD trades at 38 times trailing sales and 147 times forward earnings, and $PANW trades at 27 times sales. Call it $480 billion of market cap assuming the margin lands in Santa Clara and Austin. The capability curve says it lands in San Francisco. Watch how that reprices when the labs finish shipping the one layer of the security budget that made the margins.
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