The Kobeissi Letter(@KobeissiLetter):Investors are worried about Oracle's credit: Oracle's, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to a record ~203 basis points. This means protection against Oracle's default now costs ~$203,000 for every $10 million of principal. Oracle's CDS have more than QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, even surpassing the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. The company’s borrowing costs are also rising, with the spread on its 6.7% notes due 2056 widening +8 bps on Monday, to 263 bps, and its 5.7% notes due 2036 widening +9 bps, to 205 bps. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB- on July 9th, just 1 notch above junk, citing its rapidly growing AI-related spending. Oracle's credit risk is at crisis levels.

2026.07.24 12:55

Investors are worried about Oracle's credit: Oracle's, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to a record ~203 basis points. This means protection against Oracle's default now costs ~$203,000 for every $10 million of principal. Oracle's CDS have more than QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, even surpassing the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. The company’s borrowing costs are also rising, with the spread on its 6.7% notes due 2056 widening +8 bps on Monday, to 263 bps, and its 5.7% notes due 2036 widening +9 bps, to 205 bps. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB- on July 9th, just 1 notch above junk, citing its rapidly growing AI-related spending. Oracle's credit risk is at crisis levels.