Tomorrow is going to be a historic day. Market expectations for tomorrow's Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history. Currently, interest rate futures imply a ~30% chance of a rate hike and a ~70% chance of rates remaining unchanged. By comparison, nearly every Fed meeting since March 2020 has entered decision day with ~99% consensus. Adding to the uncertainty, Fed Chair Warsh has effectively eliminated forward guidance, leaving markets with little direction ahead of the announcement. That said, we continue to believe that the Fed will NOT hike interest rates tomorrow. It's important to not forget that just months ago, President Trump said a "pre-condition" for his next Fed Chair was a willingness to cut rates. And, the Iran War energy shock is likely to continue being labeled as a "temporary inflationary event" rather than a structural one, the labor market is weak, and Americans are already struggling with high interest rates. We think the Fed PAUSE continues tomorrow.