Saudi oil exports pivot east
Damage to Saudi Arabia’s East West Pipeline has shifted the #
oil# market’s focus from pipeline integrity to export logistics. Kpler’s base case assumes Petroline returns at around 50% of its pre-attack throughput after repairs of up to six weeks, potentially cutting Yanbu exports by 2.5 to 2.7 mbd. Saudi Arabia has sufficient tanker capacity to redirect roughly 3 mbd through Ras Tanura, requiring about 25 additional shuttle VLCCs per month. The bigger constraint is geopolitical. Greater reliance on Persian Gulf terminals means greater exposure to the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Dubai differentials supported even as the initial extremes ease.
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