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Petro D. | Research
@PDmytriiev
DeFi researcher · Stablecoin & protocol economics · Prediction markets · PM Founder:
Joined August 2022
823 Following    1.4K Followers
Hyperliquid Policy Center's new report tests whether perpetual futures help or hurt the dated futures markets they reference, using CME, Binance, BitMEX, and HIP-3 oil data. The answer across every test is that perps expand hedging access without measurably degrading the incumbent, though the oil evidence rests on just 19 weekends. → Weekend perp moves pass through to the CME reopen almost exactly one-for-one: Binance 1.0019 and BitMEX 0.9989 over 205 weekends, xyz:CL 1.0729 over 19. → The perp gave a better read on the reopen than a stale Friday close in 74% of weekends. → On the March 6, 2026 weekend, WTI gapped 15.8% at the reopen. A perp hedge would have cut $1.58M of exposure on $10M down to $62k after funding and fees. → The hedge benefit holds across the full sample and across every hedge ratio and cost assumption tested, from 1bp to 25bps. → Post-launch CME reopens were no worse than WTI's own history predicts. → A cross-market check against corn and wheat, neither of which has ever traded on HIP-3, shows no consistent sign of harm and flat pre-trends. → The funding rate anchors properly during closures: elevated premia mean-revert, and the final off-hours premium matches the reopen direction in 74% of weekends and near 100% of high-premium ones. → Median off-hours fill on xyz:CL runs near $1,300, roughly two orders of magnitude below a median CME WTI trade. → Rolling dated contracts is the hidden cost: the same April 2026 roll cost roughly $950k on Monday and $110k on Friday, on $10M notional. Perps never face that decision.
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