$CIFR 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗟𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝗯𝘆-𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗽.
Under the 2025 terms:
1. 168 MW delivered to Fluidstack by September 2026
2. Rent from October 2026
3. Another 39 MW by January 2027
Under today's amendment:
1. Delivery by individual data hall, Q4 2026 through Q1 2027
2. Rent starts on each hall as it is delivered
3. First rent in Q4 2026
$CIFR cited change orders and evolving tenant requirements, and says it is on track with the revised schedule.
The tenant is already inside. $CIFR 's Q2 update described partial occupancy and network racks going in. That is early access for setup. Rent is tied to a finished hall that is powered, cooled and handed over.
Black Pearl already works this way. $CIFR delivered first capacity there in August, two months early, with rent started while the other halls were still in fit-out.
My estimate on the rent math:
1. About 10 halls of roughly 20 MW, since 168 MW splits into 8 x 21 MW and 39 MW into 2 x 19.5 MW
2. ~$383M a year at full run-rate from the $3.0B and ~$830M contracts, about $3.1M a month per hall
3. An even ramp puts ~$48M less rent into Q4 and Q1 than the old plan
4. Each month one hall slips moves about $3.1M
In exchange:
1. 10 more years with a leading AI lab, ~$5.2B added, over $9B contracted
2. $CIFR carries the first $359.3M of costs above the original budget
3. Above that, the tenant repays half over 20 years as extra rent at a contracted return
Rack power for the next GPU generation is climbing fast, which would be one reason to rework halls mid-build. That one is my guess, not something $CIFR said.
I hold $CIFR.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Morgan Stanley modeled $CIFR Barber Lake 8 days ago as a 10-year, $3.8B lease delivering in Q3 2026.
Today $CIFR made it 20 years and over $9B, with a leading AI lab committed to years 11 through 20.
Delivery also moved. Data halls now phase in from Q4 2026 through Q1 2027, with first rent in Q4.
On Sept 11 I asked whether Barber Lake would get its own release or wait for the Q3 update.
It got its own release today. $CIFR took the lease from 10 years to 20, and contracted revenue from $3.8B to over $9B.
Delivery moved from September to phases running Q4 2026 through Q1 2027. First rent is still expected in Q4.