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Paradis Labs
@ParadisLabs
AI/Semiconductor Analyst & Trader. Thematic investment research.
Joined March 2026
96 Following    54.5K Followers
I don't like or dislike $SIVE: The information discovery edge & forward bull narrative has been priced in: Where Sivers makes a genuinely necessary component, InP external lasers that silicon can't replace, w/ four legit AI design-ins: 1. Ayar light source 2. $GFS reference design 3. $POET Optical Interposer ELS 4. $JBL 1.6T LRO pluggable module That is the true, defensible bull case + it's not a mirage. Further highlighted by: - JP Morgan disclosed a ~5% stake - index inclusions have happened - multiple analysts now publish But now: You're essentially betting on Sivers' conversion. I.e. will the design-ins turn into qualified volume revenue, and when? The same story has repeated itself with hundreds of growth names over the years - $NVDA, $PLTR and early $GOOGL etc. Sivers aren't an early stage start-up, and management have acknowledged huge, growing interest in the company now. So the pressure should be on them to deliver volume ramps in accordance with widely porported timelines of 2027-2028. Another collaboration announcement like $GFS wouldn't signal that, but it could definitely lead to another re-rate higher given their tiny MC. But ideally, at some point soon, you do wanna see some sort of POs etc that confirms their $799M "opportunity" pipeline. No idea when that happens given all the conflicting info this week on CPO timelines (SemiAnalysis, MS etc). Imo, it's turned into a waiting game for Ayar / $JBL / $MRVL - which then go to ship to end customers like $AMD / $MSFT / $AMZN. And what % of the TAM Sivers can secure given they all multi-source laser supply from other places like $COHR or $MTSI or $LITE - who are known to have laser shortages. Will continue to hold my position - don't see any point in liquidating large % gains rn.
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