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駿HaYaO
@QQ_Timmy
居住在網路的麻雀
Joined December 2016
168 Following    30K Followers
Good Morning! 5/19 Foreign Media Summary - Mature Process Nodes: US Firms Say Upcycle Beginning * Upgrade/Rating Upgrade & Target Raise: UMC * Downgrade but Target Raise: GlobalWafers * Target Raise: Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS) US major banks state that mature process capacity shortages are expected in 2H27. AI power IC demand will more than offset weakness in consumer electronics and smartphones. This is further supported by spillover orders from TSMC and Samsung. They believe TSMC will manage older-generation capacity in a more disciplined manner. Broker observations on UMC: Demand is recovering and wafer prices are being raised. Average prices in 2H26 are expected to rise 5-10%, with further increases next year. Capacity is expected to be tight from 2H26 to 2028. For VIS : Brokers note that TSMC is outsourcing part of its interposer production to them. The interposer business at the Singapore fab will also have higher gross margins than other power-related products. Due to tight capacity, prices will be raised in 1H26, including for LDDIC. Finally, for GlobalWafers: Brokers believe the market has already priced in the price recovery in the second half, improved LTA fulfillment, and progress in compound semiconductors. - ABF Substrates: US Firms Raise Targets for Unimicron & Nan Ya PCB; Upgrade & Target Raise for Zhen Ding US major banks have raised their ABF supply gap forecasts, expecting the shortage to widen to 22% by 2030 (previously ~15%).Brokers have raised Unimicron’s 2026-2028 EPS estimates to NT$11.6 / $24 / $49, valued at 51x forward P/E. For Nan Ya PCB, estimates raised to NT$11.5 / $23.8 / $51, valued at 54x forward P/E. For Zhen Ding Technology Holding: Brokers expect IC substrate revenue to triple by the year after next. In addition to benefiting from growing Chinese chip demand, they see the company competing for Google TPU substrate certification. It already has mSAP capability in the optical module segment, and BT market share is also rising. Raised 2026-2028 EPS to NT$13.8 / $21.1 / $28.5, valued at 25x forward P/E. - 2383 EMC: US Firm Reiterates Positive Stance US brokers estimate that capacity will need to expand another 20% in the year after next to meet demand. In mSAP, Elite Material has maintained ~80% market dominance since 2019 (first introduced in smartphones). They expect volume production in CPO applications. Near-term momentum: 2Q price increases to reflect rising costs, with gross margin recovery expected. Positive rating reiterated. - 3023 Sinbon: Asian Firm Raises Target Asian brokers have raised this year’s outlook and forecast revenue exceeding NT$50 billion in the year after next. Next year’s momentum will be driven by semiconductor equipment and automation trends; the year after by humanoid robots and drones. Latest EPS estimates for 2026-2028: NT$15.7 / $19.1 / $22.5, valued at 21x forward P/E, with target raised.
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早安!5/19 外電綜合整理 - 成熟製程:美系稱上行循環開始 *升評升目標:聯電 *降評升目標:環球晶 *升目標:世界先進 美系大行直言2H27預期成熟製程產能將出現短缺,因AI電源IC需求將足以抵銷疲弱的消費性與智慧手機,再來受惠來自台積電/三星外溢訂單,且認為台積電會用更有紀律的方式管理舊世代產能。 券商觀察聯電,需求回溫且調升晶圓價格,2H26平均漲5-10%,明年進一步漲價。產能部分,預期2H26-28產能吃緊。 世界先進,券商觀察台積電正將部分interposer生產外包給它,且新加坡廠的interposer業務毛利率也將優於其他電源相關產品。因產能吃緊,1H26調漲價格甚至也調升LDDIC價格。 最後,環球晶,券商認為市場已反應下半年價格復甦、LTA履約改善,以及化合物半導體進展等。 - ABF: 美系升目標:欣興/南電、升評升目標:臻鼎 美系大行上調ABF供給缺口,預期到2030年ABF供給缺口將擴大至22%(~先前為15%)。 券商上修欣興26-28年EPS至$11.6/$24/$49,以明年51xPE評價;上修南電至$11.5/$23.8/$51,以明年54xPE評價。 對於臻鼎,券商認為IC載板營收至後年年將成長3倍。除了受惠中國晶片需求增長外,看到也在爭取Google TPU載板認證。光模塊部分,早已具備mSAP能力。另外看到BT市占率也在提升。上修26-28年EPS:$13.8/$21.1/$28.5, 以明年25xPE評價。 - 2383台光電:美系重申正向 美系券商預估後年產能還要再擴2成出來以對應需求。mSAP部分,最早由智慧手機導入,而台光電自2019年以來一直維持約80%的主導市占率,券商預期在CPO的應用上將進入量產階段。近期動能而言,預期2Q會漲價以反映成本上漲,預估毛利率回升,重申正向。 - 3023信邦:亞系升目標 亞系上調今年展望,並預估後年營收超過500億台幣。預期明年動能由半導體設備與自動化趨勢帶動,後年則由人形機器人與無人機帶動。最新預估26-28年EPS為$15.7/$19.1/$22.5,以未來一年21xPE評價,同步升目標。 #下次會考#
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