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駿HaYaO
@QQ_Timmy
居住在網路的麻雀
168 Following    30K Followers
AI rack power density is entering a new era. OCP’s M+ Diablo architecture introduces a ±400V DC sidecar to support rapidly rising AI power requirements. With Google, Meta, and Microsoft contributing, data-center power architecture is shifting from a supporting function to a critical bottleneck—and competitive advantage—for AI infrastructure.
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AI compute is going to orbit. 🚀 @SpaceX’s Starmind AI1 satellite compute payload is powered by NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72, bringing AI factory compute closer to the stars. The next chapter of AI infrastructure boldly goes where no AI compute has gone before.
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Japan, Yen Defense, and the U.S. Long End Bessent’s call to the New York Fed is the signal worth watching. It suggests Treasury sees Japan’s yen defence as a potential source of pressure on the long end of the U.S. curve, and possibly a move into dangerous territory. That is the real story. If the Ministry of Finance (worlds largest holder of UST) is selling U.S. Treasuries to support the yen, the result is not a neat academic debate about inflation expectations. It is a live flow problem, with reserve shifts and duration sales capable of pushing long-end yields higher. In that sense, the market is not reacting to a fresh inflation regime so much as to cross-border balance-sheet mechanics. The pundits inflation narrative is looking increasingly threadbare. Breakevens are anchored, which undercuts the claim that the bond market is suddenly pricing a new inflation scare. Credit markets are not flashing red on prices. What they are signalling is strain in global duration and FX plumbing, with Japan at the centre. That matters because the steepening in U.S. yields is not happening in a vacuum. Japan is defending the yen, and that defense can create real pressure through reserve management, Treasury sales, and cross-border duration flows. At the same time, Large Tech stops buying UST, with its AI capex is pouring fuel on the demand for capital, data centers, chips, and power infrastructure, which raises funding needs and pushes more duration into the market. Those are powerful forces. They are more convincing than pundits waving their hands about Warsh communication Strategy and inflation when breakevens are stable. That matters because long-end yields are where financial conditions tighten most quickly. Once the back end starts to move on flows rather than inflation, the risk is that the market overshoots. Bessent appears to understand that, which is why the New York Fed call matters. This is not a story about pundit-friendly inflation angst. It is a story, about Big Tech Pivot and Japan yen defence, and a U.S. Treasury market that is now being forced to absorb the spillover.
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MI450 and Compute/networking tray for Helios.
Meant to post some of these yesterday when I had some time on the floor at AMD event. And of course I took some macros of companion silicon and analog chips :) MI450 and Compute/networking tray for Helios. I also got some commentary from execs on the Helios form factor design and why they went with a double wide.
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📣 Get a first look at the NVIDIA Photonics co-packaged optics switch with @LambdaAPI. At NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 scale, the network doesn't just move data between GPUs — it determines how fast your cluster thinks. Co-packaged optics cut switch power, reduce failure points, and deliver more tokens per watt. Here's what that looks like in practice. ➡️
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Good Morning! 6/12 Foreign Media Summary - 4958 Zhen Ding Technology (ZDT): U.S. Brokerage Raises Target Price A major U.S. brokerage's global team has significantly raised its 2026-2028 optical transceiver shipment forecasts from 53/71/80 million units to 73/141/150 million units. Among these, 1.6T volumes are 29/79/87 million units, with 3.2T expected to contribute 8 million units starting the year after next. Brokerages estimate a 83% CAGR for the optical transceiver PCB market from 2025-2028. As data transmission speeds increase, mSAP process capability becomes particularly critical and is considered an ideal technology for optical transceivers. Brokerages identify capable suppliers as 4958 Zhen Ding Technology, 2313 Compeq, and 3037 Unimicron. The brokerage particularly views Zhen Ding as the primary beneficiary. Additionally, it is expanding its ABF customer base, including Google TPU. The brokerage has raised its 2026-2028 EPS estimates to NT$14.5 / NT$24.2 / NT$33.4 and, applying a 27.5x PE multiple on next year's earnings, has simultaneously raised the target price. - 3037 Unimicron: U.S. Brokerage Raises Target Price Following the above observations, the major U.S. brokerage notes that Unimicron is one of the suppliers benefiting from growing optical transceiver demand. It also expects ABF supply to return to a shortage starting next year, with a persistent 5-10% supply gap through 2030. T-Glass supply shortages will be a key focus, leading suppliers to prioritize high-end products. The brokerage has raised its 2026-2028 EPS estimates to NT$11.8 / NT$25.3 / NT$51 and, applying a 51x PE multiple on next year's earnings, has simultaneously raised the target price.
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早安!6/12 外電綜合整理 - 4958臻鼎: 美系升目標 美系大行全球團隊大幅上修2026-2028年光收發器出貨預估;由53 / 71 / 80mn 上修至73 / 141 / 15mn。其中,1.6T的量為29 / 79 / 87mn,後年3.2T會有8mn。 券商預估25-28年光收發器PCB市場CAGR 83%。邁向更高速傳輸,mSAP製程能力尤其重要,是在光收發器的理想技術。券商看到有能力的廠商為4958臻鼎、2313華通、3037欣興。 券商尤其認為臻鼎是主要受惠者。另外在ABF方面也在擴大客戶,包含Google TPU。券商上修26-28年EPS至$14.5/$24.2/$33.4,以明年27.5xPE評價,同步升目標。 - 3037欣興:美系升目標 美系大行承上觀察欣興是受益光收發器需求成長的供應商之一。另預期明年開始ABF回到供不應求,但2030年還有5-10%的供給缺口。T-glass供給短缺將是重要觀察重點,所以認為供應商會優先給高階產品。上修26-28年EPS至$11.8/$25.3/$51,以明年51xPE評價,同步升目標。 #下次會考#
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Good Morning! 5/19 Foreign Media Summary - Mature Process Nodes: US Firms Say Upcycle Beginning * Upgrade/Rating Upgrade & Target Raise: UMC * Downgrade but Target Raise: GlobalWafers * Target Raise: Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS) US major banks state that mature process capacity shortages are expected in 2H27. AI power IC demand will more than offset weakness in consumer electronics and smartphones. This is further supported by spillover orders from TSMC and Samsung. They believe TSMC will manage older-generation capacity in a more disciplined manner. Broker observations on UMC: Demand is recovering and wafer prices are being raised. Average prices in 2H26 are expected to rise 5-10%, with further increases next year. Capacity is expected to be tight from 2H26 to 2028. For VIS : Brokers note that TSMC is outsourcing part of its interposer production to them. The interposer business at the Singapore fab will also have higher gross margins than other power-related products. Due to tight capacity, prices will be raised in 1H26, including for LDDIC. Finally, for GlobalWafers: Brokers believe the market has already priced in the price recovery in the second half, improved LTA fulfillment, and progress in compound semiconductors. - ABF Substrates: US Firms Raise Targets for Unimicron & Nan Ya PCB; Upgrade & Target Raise for Zhen Ding US major banks have raised their ABF supply gap forecasts, expecting the shortage to widen to 22% by 2030 (previously ~15%).Brokers have raised Unimicron’s 2026-2028 EPS estimates to NT$11.6 / $24 / $49, valued at 51x forward P/E. For Nan Ya PCB, estimates raised to NT$11.5 / $23.8 / $51, valued at 54x forward P/E. For Zhen Ding Technology Holding: Brokers expect IC substrate revenue to triple by the year after next. In addition to benefiting from growing Chinese chip demand, they see the company competing for Google TPU substrate certification. It already has mSAP capability in the optical module segment, and BT market share is also rising. Raised 2026-2028 EPS to NT$13.8 / $21.1 / $28.5, valued at 25x forward P/E. - 2383 EMC: US Firm Reiterates Positive Stance US brokers estimate that capacity will need to expand another 20% in the year after next to meet demand. In mSAP, Elite Material has maintained ~80% market dominance since 2019 (first introduced in smartphones). They expect volume production in CPO applications. Near-term momentum: 2Q price increases to reflect rising costs, with gross margin recovery expected. Positive rating reiterated. - 3023 Sinbon: Asian Firm Raises Target Asian brokers have raised this year’s outlook and forecast revenue exceeding NT$50 billion in the year after next. Next year’s momentum will be driven by semiconductor equipment and automation trends; the year after by humanoid robots and drones. Latest EPS estimates for 2026-2028: NT$15.7 / $19.1 / $22.5, valued at 21x forward P/E, with target raised.
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早安!5/19 外電綜合整理 - 成熟製程:美系稱上行循環開始 *升評升目標:聯電 *降評升目標:環球晶 *升目標:世界先進 美系大行直言2H27預期成熟製程產能將出現短缺,因AI電源IC需求將足以抵銷疲弱的消費性與智慧手機,再來受惠來自台積電/三星外溢訂單,且認為台積電會用更有紀律的方式管理舊世代產能。 券商觀察聯電,需求回溫且調升晶圓價格,2H26平均漲5-10%,明年進一步漲價。產能部分,預期2H26-28產能吃緊。 世界先進,券商觀察台積電正將部分interposer生產外包給它,且新加坡廠的interposer業務毛利率也將優於其他電源相關產品。因產能吃緊,1H26調漲價格甚至也調升LDDIC價格。 最後,環球晶,券商認為市場已反應下半年價格復甦、LTA履約改善,以及化合物半導體進展等。 - ABF: 美系升目標:欣興/南電、升評升目標:臻鼎 美系大行上調ABF供給缺口,預期到2030年ABF供給缺口將擴大至22%(~先前為15%)。 券商上修欣興26-28年EPS至$11.6/$24/$49,以明年51xPE評價;上修南電至$11.5/$23.8/$51,以明年54xPE評價。 對於臻鼎,券商認為IC載板營收至後年年將成長3倍。除了受惠中國晶片需求增長外,看到也在爭取Google TPU載板認證。光模塊部分,早已具備mSAP能力。另外看到BT市占率也在提升。上修26-28年EPS:$13.8/$21.1/$28.5, 以明年25xPE評價。 - 2383台光電:美系重申正向 美系券商預估後年產能還要再擴2成出來以對應需求。mSAP部分,最早由智慧手機導入,而台光電自2019年以來一直維持約80%的主導市占率,券商預期在CPO的應用上將進入量產階段。近期動能而言,預期2Q會漲價以反映成本上漲,預估毛利率回升,重申正向。 - 3023信邦:亞系升目標 亞系上調今年展望,並預估後年營收超過500億台幣。預期明年動能由半導體設備與自動化趨勢帶動,後年則由人形機器人與無人機帶動。最新預估26-28年EPS為$15.7/$19.1/$22.5,以未來一年21xPE評價,同步升目標。 #下次會考#
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