10/12/2026 Daily Recap: Is the AI trade over? - $DRAM closing down over 4% $MU resting right on the 50sma but $SNDK $SKHY $STX $WDC don't paint a pretty picture either. - $FOTO $EUV two of the photonics ETF's on the top of the leaderboard for colonoscopies. $LITE down 10%. $GLW $CIEN no help. - $SMH what was your leading group last month has $AMD losing the 20sma and $TSM $NVDA failing at their prior highs. - Genomics reverse lower after the one day bounce $ARKG $TXG $TWST. - $XLE still acts superb with the refiners and explorers doing nothing wrong. $XOM CVX $LNG $FANG - $XLF doing a nice job bouncing recently. They begin to report tomorrow. $JPM $GS WFC C. - $BTC $ETH still some wiggle room into the 50sma so they get a pass for now. - $HACK $CIBR some loose action coming from the cybersecutiry names although not broken. $CRWD $PANW $NET $FTNT. - I did nothing today besides reduce my AMD further and trim some $PLTR into strength. I am not looking to pile back into semi or software gowth names while getting pushed around in my current names. That is the fastest way to bleed out on both ends. Give back unrealized gains + try new positions which are destined for failure in those same themes. - Where is money going, where is money leaving? Toilet paper, soda and cigarettes were leading today. Photonics, semiconductors and memory were getting the ass kicked. I'll let you make of that what you will.

Just my worthless two cents: I think the market lacks the needed buyers to really drive bullish volume. Sure, there are buyers, but just not enough. It's a problem over a year in the marking. It's the reason why since October 10th 2025, we've been in chop mode, except for April to June of this year. It's the reason for the constant rotations: there simply isn't enough money to keep multiple growth sectors running at the same time. It's the reason why Semi's and software can't get a bid on the same day. It's the same buyers for both, and there are too few of them. It's the reason why market breadth is shite outside of mags and a handful of other sectors. It's the reason why $PLTR, $DELL, $NTAP, $HPE can act great, but another 5000 stocks do not. What few buyers that are active are concentrated in a few stocks. I know what the constant institutional bid looks like and feels like in the tape. It's that guardian angel that protects you from having consequences for your bad habits. It rewards you for believing that an invisible safety net is present on every dip buy. The market doesn't give me any of those vibes and hasn't done so for some time. I don't know what the buyers are waiting for: lower oil maybe, political change, or an end of the war. Who knows. Normally, the institutional buyers see past the problems of today. They see the future solutions to today's problems we small time traders can't see. We just ride their coattails. My guess is as of right now, the institutional buyers don't see any solutions to today's problems either, which is troublesome.

I have never seen more headlines in my life about tanker rates, attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, oil supply disruptions, energy crises, SPR releases, etc. Yet here we are, with two ongoing wars, and somehow crude oil is still trading below $120 and its April highs. I’m not here to call a top in refiners, tankers, or energy stocks. But what I am saying is that crude oil clearly doesn’t need to go higher on the current headlines, at least for now. Markets are forward-looking. For all we know, crude has already been pricing in some form of resolution while energy bulls continue screaming from the rooftops about $200–$300 oil. At some point, you have to pay attention to how price reacts to the news, rather than just the news itself. When an asset stops going higher despite a relentless stream of seemingly bullish headlines, that alone is worth paying attention to.

Weekly recap and a look ahead at the week to come - $IGV new closing highs since we bottomed in April and now less than 5% from a new all time high. - $CIBR $HACK leading group $CRWD $NET $OKTA $PANW $FTNT $RBRK most of these names are lacking proper buy spots here with OKTA(long) already 8.5x ATR above the 50sma. - $PLTR(long) new all time high. - $MSFT trending nicely and almost back at ATH as well. - $TEAM $FROG $RNG $SNOW $SHOP $FSLY DDOG DOCU TENB TWLO GTLB long list of software names worth monitoring. - $XLU trying to bounce from the depths of hell but $CEG $GEV $VST leading the pack for utilities. - $XLF starting to report on Tuesday. Would be helpful for the market to not lose financials here. $JPM $C $WFC. - Regional banks also start to report this week. If the $KRE can begin to participate I think we can start to see the $IWM spring back to life. - $DRAM backburner idea. $STX $WDC questionable charts and $MU $SKHY $SNDK did not close well last week. - $FOTO only has $LITE $CIEN which I would focus on. The others like $GLW $COHR $AXTI don't act well enough. - $BTC $ETH still acting well enough to keep an eye on. They have wiggle room down to the 50day. - $SMH a leading group last month looks to be taking a breather this month. $AMD $TSM $NVDA $SMTC $ASX $TER $ASML $MRVL the ones worth watching. - The market is still a bit tricky but I'm finding success in the software group so that is where most of my focus remains.

10/8/2026: Interest rates down, The start of a rotation? - Rates all closed lower today providing a lift to the interest rate sensitive groups. $IWM $XLF - Both small caps and financials are near their 200sma which I believe is an important area for us to not start living under. - Despite $USO pushing higher rotation under the hood started to really stand out. - $RSP nice job rebounding today. - OpenAI casually understates revenue by 20B. I don't want to blame that news as the reason why this market sold off, but a mixture of news + rotation really sped things up. - $BTC $ETH continue to come under pressure. Halfway decent close which allowed me to keep my position open but we have it on a tight leash from here. - Semiconductors $SMH closing down nearly 3% as $AMD $NVDA stall at their recent highs. - Memory names reverse yesterdays push. Red flag to me. - Photonics outside of $LITE trade poorly. - Neoclouds continue to break down. $NBIS finally broke from the consolidation. - Refiners starting to speed up, A little too much too fast here. $VLO $PSX $DINO $MPC - Shippers steady highs $ECO $FRO $DHT $INSW $BWET - As ugly as today may have looked I am trying to find the silver lining. Rotation was strong, lets see if we can follow up on that.

Some pictures are worth 1,000 words. Never forget the environments that actually made you the big money. It wasn't some super genius intellect. It was the market. The difference between a consistently successful swing trader and a boom and bust trader is knowing when to take your foot off the gas pedal. If there's one lesson every trader should have learned from @markminervini, it's the concept of progressive exposure. It's not flashy. It's not exciting. But it's designed to protect you when the market is no longer rewarding what you know how to do. You don't need to force trades in an environment that isn't conducive to your strategy. You need to recognize when your edge has diminished and adjust your exposure accordingly. Because when the regime eventually shifts again, you'll still have your capital intact, your confidence preserved, and the ability to progressively increase exposure as conditions improve. The goal isn't to make the most money in every market environment. It's to keep the money you made in the best ones so you're ready to capitalize when the next opportunity comes.