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Roan
@RohOnChain
building my life around AI agents, LLMs & quant systems for prediction markets + crypto
Joined September 2025
411 Following    73.1K Followers
i've been running this regime-based trading for months and it's the single reason my strategies survive when markets shift here's how to build regime-based trading that actually adapts: --------------- 1. define your regime signals: pick 5-6 that actually predict shifts.. Hurst exponent on your universe, VIX term structure, realized vs implied vol spread, cross-asset correlation matrix, credit spreads, rates curve slope.. write them into a signals.md file 2. build the classifier: a scheduled job that pulls fresh values every 4 hours, compares each signal to its rolling 90-day distribution, flags anything in the top or bottom decile, then outputs one line.. current regime is trending, mean-reverting, high vol, or crisis 3. give it a strategy mapping: "tag every strategy in your book with the regimes where it actually works. stat arb needs mean-reverting, momentum needs trending, vol selling needs low vol and dies in crisis".. now every strategy knows when it should be live 4. add the resizing agent: same loop but pointed at every open position.. current regime vs strategy's favored regime, current sizing vs Kelly-optimal for that regime, correlation with the rest of the book.. tells you exactly which positions to scale up, cut, or hedge 5. everything writes into context files inside my strategy folder: current-regime.md, regime-history.md, position-adjustments.md.. every strategy reads them before entering or resizing anything the KILLER part: this plugged straight into my kill switch layer so when the regime flips to crisis, the system pulls risk automatically before i even wake up a regime shift used to mean 3 hours of manual research and usually a missed exit now the classifier flags the shift within 4 hours and my book auto-adjusts before the loss compounds the highest-leverage tool in trading is not a better strategy it's the system that tells you when your current strategy is about to stop working
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