i think intuitively cyber is fundamentally offense dominant, but let me put my money where my mouth is.
want to wager? by the end of 2028, i’ll concede if we formally verify most of the critical software we rely on like chromium, firefox, the linux kernel, nginx, next.js, and apache.
not even asking about composition or applications built on top of them, just the core software, including every dependency.
alternative wager, maybe for you and
@JasonDClinton frontier labs have absurd amounts of tokens. by the end of 2028, if they formally verify every dependency that codex or claude code relies on(note agent actions should be part of the spec), including cloud infrastructure, desktop clients, and their servers, i’ll concede.
actually, a much more arrogant wager, i would bet that even after 2028, me, my team, or some other security researcher will still find a software vulnerability that compromises a critical asset at vercel or anthropic and responsibly disclose it.
i’d love to lose this bet.