I am firmly in favour of the West reducing its dependence on China – quickly, seriously, and yesterday. And the honest answer is that this works best under US leadership. Nobody else has the market weight, the tech chokepoints or the alliance architecture to make de-risking bite. Pax Silica is the proof of concept: a US-anchored supply-chain compact that Japan, European countries, Australia etc. have joined.
But here is the problem. The same Washington that asks allies to align on China treats those allies as a second tier – to be tariffed, questioned, and disciplined – while Trump reserves its deference for Beijing and Moscow. Leadership that is contradictory in aim, bilateral in method and transactional in loyalty is hard to follow and harder to trust.
Europe (and other allies) therefore faces an awkward situation: align with the US on China while hedging against the US on many other fronts simultaneously. De-risking from China remains right. But the US must decide whether it wants followers or clients. Only one of those builds a coalition.