$SIVE raised prices, confirmed at its own CIOE booth this week, and channel checks put lasers across the 70 to 200 mW band up on ASP. That part is real and I am not going to argue with it. I spent this afternoon putting every published power figure in this chain onto one axis instead, and the rise is landing one curve below the curve the stock is being sold on. Lumentum said the same thing about pricing two days before the show opened, in flatter language. Laser supply "is not really catching up," they do not see the supply demand gap closing "within the next couple of years," and they are allocating capacity based on price. Every deal they sign today is at equal or higher pricing than the escalator they already had in place. So the price rise describes the whole layer right now. It is not something happening to one company in it. What separates the names inside that layer is power. Same call: "It's not going to be 100-milliwatt laser. It's going to be 150-milliwatt lasers or 200-milliwatt lasers." And then precisely, for all NPO and CPO work, "120, 150-milliwatt and above, which is not the traditional 70-milliwatt laser piece, which is used in today's pluggable market." Sivers' own site lists exactly one in-sale product with a power figure attached. The DR8 1310nm at 70 mW, described as built for 800G and above transceivers. The eight-channel array is over 65 mW per channel. The other two chipsets say high power and give no number at all. Lumentum's CTO stood up in Taipei on 31 August and specified its CPO external light source three ways: 400 mW first generation at roughly 20 percent wall-plug, 350 mW per laser in the sixteen-channel DWDM version, and a higher class above 1.0 W at 25 degrees. Coherent is not publishing milliwatts, it is just building them. Ultra-high-power CW lasers for CPO are ramping in Texas and Sweden right now, revenue expected in the December quarter, including volumes tied to its Nvidia partnership. Lumentum saying it sees nobody else in high power is a competitor's line and it flatters them, so take it at a discount. The voice in this with nothing to sell is Lightmatter's Nicholas Harris, a buyer of these things, at that same Taipei summit: the laser engineers at Coherent and Lumentum "have taken the power to 400 mW," and 400 mW "is already very close to the damage threshold of the fiber." Sivers is early on that side rather than absent from it. A USD 3.4m program with SemiNex announced 13 August covers high-power external sources and SOA gain stages, customer sampling and early production targeted for the second half of 2027. On 3 September it put USD 30m into expanding the Glasgow fab past 100 million CW DFB lasers a year, operational Q4 2027. So Sivers has published a capacity number and no power number for the AI tier, while Ligitek in Taiwan published a power number, 100 mW today and 400 mW targeted for 2027, and no capacity number. Each has shown half its hand. The wait costs money. Q2 on 27 August: net sales SEK 53.8m, down 12% year on year. Operating cash flow minus SEK 70.0m. Equity per share from 3.55 down to 2.97. They raised roughly SEK 825m in directed issues during the quarter and converted a USD 12m loan to equity after it closed. Solvency is not the question, they have the cash. Dilution is, and it keeps showing up ahead of the revenue. Management's own horizon is a product business in 2027 and the long-term financial model from 2028. One line in that report has stayed with me. SEK 42.9m of the EBITDA loss is a non-cash social security charge "related to the strong appreciation of the company's share price during the quarter." The share price going up is itself making the accounts look worse. The bull case is not hiding either, which I respect. Asked this week whether he still sees all-time highs, Serenity said all it takes is a surprise announcement along the lines of Sivers powers Innolight, and added, "Could be anytime or never, who knows." That is an honest description of a catalyst trade. It is a different object from a spec sheet. What would change my read: one published power figure from Sivers at 150 mW or above with a named customer against it. That single number moves the company from the pluggable curve to the AI curve and most of what I have written here falls over. Short of it, I would rather own the price rise where it is already converting into shipped product, $LITE at 946 and $COHR at 296 pre-market against $SIVE at 30.76 in Stockholm. And the argument has a date on it regardless: Marvell's CTO put co-packaged optics ramping "at the earliest by end of 2027," Cisco said it starts at the 3.2T generation, and Ligitek dated its own 3.2T to that same quarter. Everyone is building toward one window.