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Schulz Duggan
@Schulz_Research
Independent AI supply-chain research: optics, memory, power. Asia and US filings in the original, translated into pricing. The chokepoints nobody prices in.
Joined January 2026
61 Following    1.5K Followers
Next week has one event on it and it is not ours. The FOMC decides on Wednesday the 16th at 14:00, and futures put a quarter-point rise at better than four chances in five. The range is 3.50 to 3.75 and has not moved all year, so this would be the first tightening of the cycle. The repricing followed Warsh at Jackson Hole, where he said the summer's better inflation prints did not show that the underlying trend had meaningfully improved. August CPI then printed 3.4%, with core up 0.3% on the month, a tenth above forecast. Retail sales land at 08:30 that same morning. That is the last data input, five and a half hours before the decision. Now the part that decides how to read the week. Fifty-nine companies report between Monday and Friday. I checked every one against our thirty names and not one of ours is on the list. The next is Micron on 30 September, from the company's own notice. No results, no product event, nothing at all from our side of the chain. So these names get priced by rates next week rather than by anything they do. Most of the pool trades on a long-duration multiple, which puts it in the front row for exactly this kind of move. Worth separating what a hike actually touches. I have spent this week reading fab schedules and supply agreements. SK Hynix with 38 billion dollars approved and no output before December 2028. Samsung's P5 in 2028. Micron's Idaho fabs in 2027 and late 2028. TSMC's packaging roadmap running out to 2029. Memory long-term agreements that already carry price ceilings. A quarter point moves none of those dates. It moves the rate at which you discount them. The week tests the multiple, not the thesis. Those are different things, and next week will tell you very little about the second one. Two handles if you want something other than macro. Oppenheimer runs an AI infrastructure conference in New York on Tuesday, and Wells Fargo takes investors around Texas power and gas on Wednesday and Thursday. Those are the only two places our lane speaks all week. Then keep the week after clear. ECOC opens in Málaga on the 20th, and that is where the optical supply chain says what it has been holding since Shenzhen. $NVDA $MU $SKHY $TSM
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