China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West.
Contact: shanghaimacro@gmail.com
This observation is in line with what I recently wrote in our report:
"The problem is that China's high-tech sectors remain a relatively small part of the overall economy and have a high barrier to entry. The vast majority of the population therefore remains largely excluded from this new growth cycle."
"For ordinary households working in traditional manufacturing and service industries—restaurants, transportation, construction, retail, and countless other parts of the domestic economy—the reality remains very different. These sectors continue to face deflation, shrinking margins, weak income growth, and rising bankruptcies. In other words, while the upper end of the K is enjoying an extraordinary boom, the lower end—which represents the overwhelming majority of the population—is dealing with a recession."
"This is the fundamental political problem created by China's K-shaped development model: the gains are highly concentrated, while the pain is widely distributed. Ultimately, we believe the social backlash from the lower end of the K is likely to become increasingly difficult for Beijing to ignore."