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Shanghai Macro Strategist
@ShanghaiMacro
China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West. Contact: shanghaimacro@gmail.com
Joined April 2022
347 Following    58.5K Followers
This observation is in line with what I recently wrote in our report: "The problem is that China's high-tech sectors remain a relatively small part of the overall economy and have a high barrier to entry. The vast majority of the population therefore remains largely excluded from this new growth cycle." "For ordinary households working in traditional manufacturing and service industries—restaurants, transportation, construction, retail, and countless other parts of the domestic economy—the reality remains very different. These sectors continue to face deflation, shrinking margins, weak income growth, and rising bankruptcies. In other words, while the upper end of the K is enjoying an extraordinary boom, the lower end—which represents the overwhelming majority of the population—is dealing with a recession." "This is the fundamental political problem created by China's K-shaped development model: the gains are highly concentrated, while the pain is widely distributed. Ultimately, we believe the social backlash from the lower end of the K is likely to become increasingly difficult for Beijing to ignore."
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A股半年报全部披露,营收增速7%远超GDP增速,利润增速15%,数据不可谓不好,但为什么普通人对经济的体感这么差。 一篇短文梳理了近10年A股营收的增速与结构变化,从产业结构讲清楚温差,事实上A股中与普通人相关的行业财务表现和体感一样差。 面对固执的政策和强大的产业趋势,普通人只能顺势而为。
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