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Tommy
@Shaughnessy119
Early Stage Investor | Founding Partner @Delphi_Ventures | Co-Founder @Delphi_Digital | Host @PodcastDelphi | My Opinions
4.3K Following    70K Followers
If you want me to answer your kids 1,000 questions I want to be paid I don’t do AI reinforcement learning from human feedback for free
They aren’t worried They accelerate privately and argue for a regulatory moat publicly it’s their highest upside play
If Anthropic is worried about rogue AI killing everyone why did they give it control of a robotic biology lab?
Animal kingdom is an amazing show how did I not know about the California sopranos
Open source is aggressively gaining share on the AI side This will continue
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3# and #4# today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2#). (Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
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The usual story is that China just distills U.S. AI models. Delphi Ventures' @Shaughnessy119 says the DeepSeek R1 paper shows real innovation, and that cheap Chinese open source models are exactly why OpenAI and Anthropic want a regulatory moat. 🐉
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Much prefer OpenAI and Anthropic curing cancer vs fake cyber attacks The surprises are always negative Why don’t the models go cure cancer?
The shift to open source AI - negative for the AI capex trade short term - bullish neo clouds - bullish enterprise AI sovereignty (Nous, Palantir, Microsoft) - Bearish OpenAI and Anthropic margins - Bullish BTC as AI trade slows - Bullish BTC when we get UBI given AGI - Bullish BTC if AI trade blows up as a safety route - Yes I’m bullish AI long term and think we get AGI my takes are nuanced
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1/ Does the shift to Open Source break the AI capex buildout? TLDR: If a user shifts from $25M Opus 5 to $4.44 GLM 5.2 how does this ripple through the AI supply chain? Well it all comes down to how much the infra providers earn in each scenario
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I've been saying!!
BREAKING: Only ~1% of Bending Spoons’ AI requests & tokens goes to frontier models. 99% runs on self-hosted open-weight models. CEO Luca Ferrari on the shift to Sovereign AI: “We end up using open-weight models we self-host, so these are basically free. I mean, there is a little bit of cloud cost, but for 99% of the requests and tokens.” “And the frontier models, generally closed weight, through APIs for maybe 1% of the requests, only for the most complex tasks.” “Sometimes we use them automatically to check the work that got done by the slightly less intelligent models, as a more senior engineer would with a more junior engineer.”
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I’m simultaneously bullish open source, but I think it negatively affects the AI capex flywheel short mid term Its already hurting stock prices
1/ Does the shift to Open Source break the AI capex buildout? TLDR: If a user shifts from $25M Opus 5 to $4.44 GLM 5.2 how does this ripple through the AI supply chain? Well it all comes down to how much the infra providers earn in each scenario
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Why do OpenAI and Anthropic suddenly want AI to slow down? Delphi Ventures' @Shaughnessy119 tells @kain and @tayvano_ it's a regulatory moat against cheap, fast-improving models like @deepseek_ai. 🐉
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So @nockchain is going to reuse AI inference that is already happening at scale, to secure their blockchain Inference providers earn block rewards and Nockchain's security goes way up. Win/Win On Bitcoin, the mining work secures the chain only Nockchain replaces hashing with zero knowledge proofs. Consensus does not care what you computed, only that you produced a valid proof below the difficulty target So the miner and the inference provider become the same entity! Lets walk through an example 🕐 You run a GPU 🕑 A customer pays you to run their AI inference request 🕒 You serve them the answer, and in doing that you produce a ZK proof of the computation 🕓 That same proof is your lottery ticket against the block reward 🕕 If it lands below the target, you just secured a block while getting paid by the customer 🕖 One job, two payouts, and the network gets secured by real economic work instead of wasted hashing Nockchain already made chain improvements recently with Phase 2 (2.5 minute blocks and a protocol fund) but this update moves taps them into a huge existing increase in security supply while hitting the privacy aspects well @Delphi_Ventures are proud $NOCK holders and we really like @loganallc, @chiefgrug and the team. They have persevered through some big hurdles and delivered.
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Max pain is $BTC goes quantum secure and runs to $250k while everyone’s stuck in 3rd and 4th layer late stage AI SPVs
New Delphi Ventures investment in non-invasive BCI
We are beyond excited to back @aryangovil and @SynaptrixAI Synaptrix is our concentrated bet on non invasive BCI through a truly one of a kind founding team Aryan spent four years researching Alzheimer’s at NYU, then withdrew his medical school applications to build Synaptrix. He wanted to help far more people than he could seeing patients one at a time. He and his cofounder Eric started tinkering with open source hardware in their apartment. Fast forward to today and synaptrix is live with wheelchair patients today. They’re building a headset that lets people control a wheelchair or computer through imagined movement. There is no surgery or screwing into your skull. They’ve already demonstrated cursor control without eye tracking. For someone with paralysis, steering a wheelchair without blowing into a tube or using a computer independently is a massive unlock in terms of freedom and mobility. Removing the need for brain surgery gives this a path to reaching far more people around the world. The hard part is that electrical signals from the brain get weakened and blurred as they pass through the skull, then mixed with muscle activity and outside interference. Synaptrix combines precise sensing with proprietary neural data and foundation models to turn those noisy signals into useful commands. That’s why we’re backing the decoding layer, not just a headset. As sensing hardware gets cheaper, we think the value goes to the data and models that can reliably understand movement intentions across different people and environments. More real world use can generate better training data, improve the models and extend the same technology from wheelchairs to other devices we control with our hands. We are very proud to back Synaptrix, Aryan, Eric and Team! Kudos to @DrewAHenderson and @august_wstein on their work here
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The next 12 months 1/ Entirely new non LLM based AI models come out and people /model their hermes agents and point to them 2/ Buying $10-$50k of DGX sparks and running GLM 5.3 for your whole business makes a lot of sense (saves money, own your IP as an asset, privacy)
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Given no clarity I think the pro SEC/CFTC go crazy allowing and enabling crypto in response
Clarity Is Dead. Did Crypto's All-In Bet on Trump Backfire? - Uneasy Money Are OpenAI and Anthropic's calls to slow AI down about safety, or a regulatory moat against cheap Chinese open source models? On the new Uneasy Money, Delphi Ventures' @Shaughnessy119 tells @kaiynne and @tayvano_ it's the moat. Plus: why the Clarity Act died, an $8M Safe exploit Kain calls AI-assisted, and Wyoming dropping @LayerZero_Core for @chainlink. 🎧 Timestamps: 🏛️ 02:35 Why Clarity died without 50 votes and what SEC/CFTC rules might replace it 🇺🇸 19:06 Why crypto's all-in bet on Trump has Taylor uneasy about the partisan trade 💧 23:20 1inch: Back multiple liquidity positions and keep your tokens in your wallet until a swap fills at 🤖 24:08 Why OpenAI and Anthropic's own founders are calling to slow AI down 🐉 31:12 Tommy on why AI safety talk is regulatory capture against Chinese open source 🕵️ 38:17 Anthropic's own report: how a CCP surveillance job showed up in its logs 💰 51:42 Would you bet on AI safety or acceleration? Tommy makes the hosts pick a side 🔓 56:56 How an $8M Safe exploit got frontrun by a 4-year-old yoink bot 📈 01:01:46 Why the SDNY charged Robinhood engineers with trading on Hyperliquid ahead of listings ⚔️ 01:05:27 Why Wyoming dropping LayerZero for Chainlink reignited the Link Marines
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I just saw a video of Mitch McConnell who sadly looks in rough shape and it’s just disappointing as hell we’re trusting people in this mental shape and age to vote on things like the clarity act and putting them through it Like it’s blatantly someone else voting through him
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AI Alignment is a human to personal AI activity Global AI Alignment is all of these personally aligned AI's interacting Alignment is not a constitution decided by one company If you are misaligned individually you face normal legal or civil consequences Freedom
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We are beyond excited to back @aryangovil and @SynaptrixAI Synaptrix is our concentrated bet on non invasive BCI through a truly one of a kind founding team Aryan spent four years researching Alzheimer’s at NYU, then withdrew his medical school applications to build Synaptrix. He wanted to help far more people than he could seeing patients one at a time. He and his cofounder Eric started tinkering with open source hardware in their apartment. Fast forward to today and synaptrix is live with wheelchair patients today. They’re building a headset that lets people control a wheelchair or computer through imagined movement. There is no surgery or screwing into your skull. They’ve already demonstrated cursor control without eye tracking. For someone with paralysis, steering a wheelchair without blowing into a tube or using a computer independently is a massive unlock in terms of freedom and mobility. Removing the need for brain surgery gives this a path to reaching far more people around the world. The hard part is that electrical signals from the brain get weakened and blurred as they pass through the skull, then mixed with muscle activity and outside interference. Synaptrix combines precise sensing with proprietary neural data and foundation models to turn those noisy signals into useful commands. That’s why we’re backing the decoding layer, not just a headset. As sensing hardware gets cheaper, we think the value goes to the data and models that can reliably understand movement intentions across different people and environments. More real world use can generate better training data, improve the models and extend the same technology from wheelchairs to other devices we control with our hands. We are very proud to back Synaptrix, Aryan, Eric and Team! Kudos to @DrewAHenderson and @august_wstein on their work here
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Huge Bifurcation in American AI War 1/ True current frontier labs like Open and Anthropic. Google is not frontier. These labs currently have the best models but are arguing for max regulatory capture and to basically control the pace of intelligence. Safety is clearly used to propagate a reg cap agenda. Their models are truly insanely good and the final jump in intelligence can create massive amounts in economic benefit, its an exponential style return not linear. They should also own a % of the technologies their models create as per token billing makes no sense. There is zero shot these companies slow down on training (maybe slow down what they release) given China will not slow down and if we lose AGI, we lose everything. Model commoditization and chinese AI labs doing actually cool inventive stuff makes their business model a lot harder. 2/ The open source and sovereign first AI companies like Meta (open models and muse), Palantir (own your intelligence stack), Microsoft (Satya bullish open source and serving this to enterprise) and soon Google since they lost the frontier race and will roll out massive open source support imo. Nvidia included. These companies do not offer frontier models they offer 90% as good for 1/10 the cost but you can actually own your AI stack as a core business asset instead of being IP farmed. They’re not using doomerism as reg capture. They benefit from Chinese open source models and a lot of value is returned to enterprises and people. It’s a bet models commoditize and we get millions of not specific models (my old thesis) but AI architectures around models (data, memory, interactions, internal apps etc) you can point at any model i.e. Nous Research Hermes agent for enterprise is the best example of this thesis. Actually it may be more than 90% as good since its a custom offering for your business at a way lower price point and you can sell the IP later on. Closed vs Open Source Safety vs Accelerationism Reg capture vs market economy This dynamic has many names Who wins?
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