(((The Daily Shot)))
@SoberLook
The Daily Shot is a graphical, no-hype global financial and economic newsletter (see sample:
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The share of stocks beating the S&P 500 over the past decade has steadily declined.
Source: Adam Parker
This chart shows the sensitivity to growth and inflation for different assets and trading strategies.
Source: AQR
A new Federal Reserve staff Financial Vulnerability Index (FVI) reached the 65th percentile in the second quarter, signaling vulnerability is “notable” but not yet “elevated.”
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The latest Daily Shot survey showed that monetary policy expectations have shifted sharply, with a significant share of readers (74%) now expecting the Fed to raise rates further in the next 12 months.
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Euro area returns on equity have risen, driven by higher profit margins and improving capital efficiency rather than increased financial leverage.
Source: Jeremie Peloso, @bcaresearch
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Chinese industrial firms receive substantially more government support than their advanced-economy peers.
Source: Jeremie Peloso, @bcaresearch, “China Shock 2.0: Europe Strikes Back” (September 2026)
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The 10-year yield is now more than one-sigma cheap, based on Alpine Macro’s model.
Source: @RealAlpineMacro
Inflation pressures are being driven by three largely temporary supply shocks—tariffs, energy, and the AI buildout—with tariff pass-through already past its peak and the other pressures expected to ease in 2027, according to @RealAlpineMacro.
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Despite rising yields, Japan’s net interest payments as a share of GDP are projected to remain among the lowest in the OECD in 2027.
Source: Japan Economy Watch
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🇺🇸 The current market pricing implies one of the shallowest tightening cycles in history.
Today’s Daily Shot looks at historical Fed tightening cycles since the mid-1960s, divided into two groups: those followed by soft landings and those followed by recessions.
Equity performance, after subtracting cash returns, is subdued on average in the early stages of tightening. However, returns eventually diverge sharply, with recessionary outcomes producing substantially weaker returns than soft landings.
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Today's Daily Shot looks at historical Fed tightening cycles since the mid-1960s, divided into two groups: those followed by soft landings and those followed by recessions.
Equity performance, after subtracting cash returns, is subdued on average in the early stages of tightening. However, returns eventually diverge sharply, with recessionary outcomes producing substantially weaker returns than soft landings.
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🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Sept. 18, 2026).
#economy#
Greece's financial-sector recovery has included a sharp decline in banks' nonperforming loans, with STOXX restoring Greece to Developed Market status.
@markets
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With yields moving higher, the longer-term return outlook has improved. This is because bond returns closely track their starting yields over the long run, whether an investor holds the bonds to maturity or rolls them periodically.
Source: @AugurInfinity
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Do rising yields hurt stocks?
This chart focuses exclusively on periods when yields were rising and further divides them based on whether growth was strengthening or weakening. The distinction is clear: rising yields were a meaningful headwind for stocks when accompanied by weakening growth.
Source: @AugurInfinity
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Nearly 90% of Germans support membership in Europe's common currency and market, presenting a constraint on the AfD's euroskeptic platform.
Source: @mgertken, @bcaresearch, "Germany Is Not Reliving 1933" (September 2026)
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🇺🇸 Employment in the information sector has steadily declined over the past four years.
🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Sept. 4, 2026).
Europe’s smallest firms face implied costs of capital above 60%, versus roughly 40% for US peers, constraining their capacity to finance and scale profitable growth.
Source: Center for Economic Policy Research via @SnippetFinance
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