once i'm in a spot position i'm comfortable holding long term, i try to stop looking at the chart. maybe a glance at the 3d or weekly every so often, daily even less. i did my research, picked my level, bought it. after that the chart mostly just gives me reasons to get in my own head. when things start trending, ta gets pretty useless for long stretches, and it was already fuzzy to begin with. if i stare at it long enough i'll find something bearish and let it mess with how i'm thinking about the position. what i actually care about is where we are in the cycle overall, where btc is vs where i think it can go, how long i've been holding, and how the rest of the market and sentiment look. most of that i get from being on here and talking to people. i did not follow any of this with zcash this summer. bought in march / early april and was giga bullish. then around the 400s i started seeing bear divs on the 2w and a possible one on the monthly, and talked myself into it going back to 300 or 200 and sitting there accumulating while majors ran. didn't want to sit in a big underwater position. traded in and out a few times, each one worse than the last, then bought back in anyway. what i should have said to myself: zec was one of the strongest coins through the whole bear, and btc, eth and sol all had big bull divs on the weekly. the whole market going up while zec dumps off a chart divergence would be weird. maybe it underperforms, but more likely the bear divs just invalidate and it pushes through. so if you're seeing htf bear divs on your coins right now after a run, or everyone's telling you it's some other chain's season, i'd zoom out and think about where we are in the cycle. there'll be pullbacks and a lot of volatility depending on what you hold. but if your thesis is intact, you think the cycle has more juice, and you still have conviction, trying to rebuy 25-30% lower is how i got chopped up. you don't know when it turns. i'd just hold.

crypto has been climbing the wall of worry for the last month. something stocks have been quite familiar with for the last few years. so here's what i think is set up. there's a huge cohort of 4 year cyclers who've been waiting for the october bottom. "muh october bottom, october bottom." they didn't believe the first pump off 60k. they told themselves it'd scam back down and they'd load up in october. well, it's late september. if this weekly holds, they're sidelined watching a higher high print. that's a recipe for fomo. i think it pushes us higher near term, somewhere in the 90-97k zone as the next stop. price forces the october people to chase because they think the window is closing forever. wherever that chase runs out of buyers is closeish to a local top. maybe a few more percent on btc, maybe more on alts, then a correction. those super late longs don't get a free ride. a q4 with no bottom wick would kinda surprise me. right now the market is pressing sideliners and making them second guess themselves. that's a gnarly place to be. i know because i've been there. late 2018. bitcoin sat at 6k for six months, nuked to 3k, sat there for two more. i bought half my bag around 4k on the way down. then i looked at the chart, said "this looks like absolute shit, it's going to 2k," and waited for the rest. it went 3k to 5-6k very, very fast. and i kept my bear bias. "bearish retest of 6k. just liquidating late shorts. we're heading back down." i couldn't let it go. i ended up buying the rest at 7-8k. in hindsight that was still a good buy. but the execution was terrible. like, really terrible. i could have bought at 6k for six months. i could have bought at 3k for two months. and when the impulse candle came and the thing that would flip my bias actually happened, i didn't flip. i ended up with less than half the bitcoin i could have had. and the dumb part is i was long term bullish the whole time. i thought 100k in 2021. i just got greedy trying to scratch out a few more coins at the bottom instead of saying "this is good enough." the one thing i'll give myself credit for is buying back at 8k instead of holding out. because every day you're sidelined while price goes up, it eats at you. you know other people bought earlier. the timeline's euphoric. you think you fucked up, then you get stubborn and decide maybe you were right all along. that loop is exactly how someone stays sidelined from 3k to 10k to 15k, and by the time they give in, a lot of the "easier" gains are gone. though it's never easy at the time. there's always risk. but looking back you go, "how did i miss that". so for anyone sidelined right now: i'm not telling you to fomo in up here. it depends on what you're buying, your time horizon, whether you're spot or levered. what i am saying is set the bear bias aside and think cleanly. put the past in the past. whatever you decided in july doesn't matter anymore. make the best decision for you, today, with the chart you actually have in front of you.

spent sunday afternoon watching football and swimming with the kids. coupons printer was still clocked in though. these are the last 4 rewards payouts and it’s only at 4m mcap and hardly anybody knows about it yet…

hold coupons, earn pons. $COUPONS went live on robinhood chain a few days ago. 3% tax on every buy and sell, 100% of it swapped to $PONS and paid out to holders. no creator cut, no skim. hold 10,000+ coupons and you get paid. i think it's the first reflection token on hood chain that pays out rewards in pons. why pons? robinhood chain had a huge initial surge and has cooled off over the last month, but vlad and team have shown they clearly care about this chain succeeding, and they're very smart operators. pons is the premier launchpad on the chain and the metrics speak for themselves. if you're going to collect rewards, why not collect them in the asset with a real shot at multi billions on a new chain backed by robinhood? the stonk/knots comparison: stonk is the sol launchpad and knots is the reflection token that pays holders in it. i have a lot of respect for stonk and what they've built. but there was a gap in the market. pons should have a "knots" too. by the stonk/knots ratio, that's roughly 10% of pons market cap. coupons is at $1M right now. interesting upside potential... and the upside here is arguably better than knots. 20% of coupons supply is already burned and 5% is locked, and none of it earns rewards, so every payout is split across fewer coins. that means holders get a much bigger cut of every payout. the teams plan is to keep burning tokens as mcap hits milestones, up to 50%. at 50% burned, every coupon gets DOUBLE the slice it would in a token with nothing burned. knots and zcat don't have that (i hold a lot of both of those and love them too). i think that's an important point to restate. this is a rewards token on steroids. payouts go out every few hours, whenever enough pons has pooled up in the dividend wallet. every one is a plain pons transfer you can watch on chain. one more thing: coupons isn't fully tradable on fomo yet. they're working on integrating evm tax tokens on their backend. i think that's bullish. the friction means the people buying right now actually want to be here, and they're buying while even though there is extra friction. when fomo integration lands and it's fully tradable there, i'd expect the floodgates to open. can buy on any dex right now: uniswap, metamask, phantom, etc CA: 0xf086C53f2780E601F0d005fABB3Ee5a220336062 nfa.

people have forgotten how to believe again after last cycles pathetic “bull market” what if 2024 was an echo bubble with no new innovations and now, right now, is the time to position for a true bull again? have you thought about that? or just “oh jeez, my coin went up 1.2% and is at a 2h supply zone I better sell and hope I can buy back for an extra 5% coins on a dump” close the door on bear market trauma. there is no place for it now. dips if/when they come are truly gifts

i see ppl drawing shapes and lines doing ta on the zcash chart rn. imo we are way past the point there’s much signal in that. doesn’t mean we can’t go down (we will eventually). in the 400s I was coping about multiple bear divs on htf oscillators and thought a bigger dump was possible. instead it went vertical. it was a good reminder that strength is strength. all these gains were during the bear. “what happens during the bull?”

so as it turns out, when an unc like me starts smashing the buy button on new memes and joins the trenches…it means it’s the local top. sorry guys. here’s the good news though. even with all the scary macro headlines, stock weakness, rate hike talk etc btc is holding up pretty well. it’s only a matter of time until btc legs up from 75/80k to 90k and that’s when buys over the last month will go from looking dumb to “wow I shoulda bought there”

the brain is actually quite funny. i didn’t think twice about throwing away money trenching this weekend but when it comes time to pay $100/mo for YouTube tv plus nfl Sunday ticket im irrationally pissed off and don’t want to do it out of principle. Even though I would derive value out of it each week.

guys, when I’m in the trenches and I press buy on [random coin 1234] I think to myself, “what if this is the next wif? I should buy a bit more just in case” i equate this feeling to right before the first game of the nfl season where anything is technically possible.

I know ppl have been doing this for like 2 years but just discovered sub 500k mcap shitcoins on fomo and bought like 15 and got rugged on 14 of them within an hour absolutely zero due diligence just picking based on ticker and if I found a thesis funny/interesting. pretty addicting though

bought square (now block) around $220 during covid after it had already run 3x. everything was ripping and i figured it would keep going for a while. it went to $280 and i felt pretty good. then it went straight down for months. held all of it, telling myself it would bounce. sat around $60 for three years. sold last year. the chart looked like a christmas tree. i was the ornament at the top.

nobody talks about the version where it doesn't work. when i went all in on sol last cycle i actually did the math on it hitting zero. the answer was that i'd be fucked. back to a job i didn't love, paying off a bet that didn't hit, for years. i knew that and did it anyway. it worked. but there's a version of me in another timeline sitting in a cubicle right now instead of posting from my couch, and he made the exact same decision i did. i was prepared. i was mostly lucky. when you see somebody post a win you're seeing the outcome. you're not seeing the hundred guys who took the similar bets and got erased, because they deleted the account. if you're looking at sizing into something right now, could you live in the timeline where it doesn't work? if yes, let it rip.

bought $microduck on fomo a few days ago. sitting on it through this dip. this one is actually weird in a good way: • real $399 ai robot duck you can buy from pollen robotics (hugging face’s hardware team). Nvda bought hugging face recently • you drive the duck with a remote, it walks / roller skates / picks stuff up, and you can train it new behaviors. open-source so ppl can train the duck to do new things and your duck can learn those too. • they opened preorders late august, blew through demand, first units start shipping over the next few months. now back ordered for the next 4-6 months why buy this meme? it has a physical product in demand shipping into the same news cycle (unique). high vitality potential and it’s still early until the ducks actually show up on peoples desks. on fomo if you want the live position link to buy the duck:

question on the coinbase cbZEC asset. coinbase custodies the underlying 1:1, that part is clear. what isn't clear is what would make them freeze the token in a wallet i control, or how a redemption at size gets handled. supply is still small enough that i’d be most of the float, so I'd rather ask first than find out later. if anyone knows who owns cbZEC policy over there, point me at them.

a few weeks ago i made a tactical decision to play new cycle memes and dove in head first. that's most of why i've been quieter than usual. why? zcash has been performing really well, so i decided i can get more aggressive with the meme side of my port. sold all my fart and pepe. i still think they do well eventually, but i didn't really want to sit around and wait while there was other stuff with higher upside to buy. after all, i’m here to try and make money. so i moved all of those proceeds into fomo. first week i just bought pons. last week i bought a lot of other things. when a boomer like me shows up to a meta that's usually the local top, which is about what happened. pons is basically the only thing i'm green on. i'm down 30-50% on literally every other coin (for now, it's early innings). i tried to pick what could be the leader in a few different ecosystems since i have no idea which one wins. wasn't early to any of them. first time actually in the trenches. lots to learn and have def made some mistakes but that's the only way i'm gonna learn. plan is to sit now. small punt if something new looks right. basically if i can see something higher in six or twelve months ill buy a meaningful amount for me.

i don’t think enough people have thought this one all the way through. zcash is one of the only things besides bitcoin where the price going up makes the story better. no revenue, no cash flow, nothing to build a multiple off of. so there’s no number anyone can point at to tell you it’s “expensive”. most everything else has a comp. fees, users, something. the only anchor anyone has for zcash is bitcoin, which is a trillion dollars. and the answer to that is yeah, this is bitcoin, but private. swiss bank account in your pocket. ten year old project, quantum roadmap, chart finally coming out of a base it sat in for years. i think zcash ends up being the best candidate to create fomo since 2017.