bought about $1.6m of pumpfun. also on fomo. 3x the size of the uni buy, might be a little aggressive but here's why pump does about the same revenue as hyperliquid. last 30 days was 65m vs 71m, and some weeks pump is ahead. lifetime revenue, pump passed hyperliquid in august. hyperliquid trades around 20b. pump trades around 2b. that's roughly 3x annualized revenue vs 23x, a 8-10x discount. why though? two things, and answer is probably both. people don't trust memes as a real business, even after pump survived a full bear market and a year of "memes were a one time thing." and there's a trust gap on the 2 teams. call it a jeff premium or a pump discount, same result this bet is that gap closes. not that pump trades at hyperliquid's multiple, just that it stops trading at 1/10 of it. the last 12 months were supposed to be the worst part of the cycle for memes and pump still printed. if btc goes up and majors go up, wealth effect trickles into risk appetite and onchain, and pump's core business gets better at exactly the moment the multiple should expand. and the team is not sitting still. mid october they turned on perps in the app through hyperliquid builder codes. fomo did it too so it's not unique, but for pump it keeps people in the ecosystem. when onchain is dead, which it has been, the same degens flip to 40x btc without leaving the app and pump takes a cut. when onchain comes back they're already there. most meme guys were never going to move money to hyperliquid and trade perps. now it's one tap they're also the only public facing crypto company i can think of that is aggressively trying to acquire customers. giveaways, trading rewards, paying people to call out coins. people hate this. they think the wrong people get paid. maybe…but they've decided growth comes first and they're willing to give back a ton of revenue to get it. could they spread of rewards be better? yea for sure. hopefully it improves over time. i don't need it to be perfect, i need it to be aggressive to fuel growth, and it is now, on the hate the platform gets, which is at an all time high. most of it comes back to one thing, they said airdrop and haven't delivered. people took that personally, and also lost money on memes and took that personally too. so that means the pump hate is personal, and emotions like this have no place when you’re trying to make money investing. meanwhile 90% of leveraged traders lose money and hyperliquid gets none of this hate, partially because hyperliquid airdropped and made people rich. people like the team, but it’s the same product category, same losers, but the optics are diff. if pump had airdropped it'd be the greatest company in crypto and every sin forgiven the funny part about airdrops is i can think of two in history that actually changed lives, uniswap and hyperliquid. that's it. and no guarantee anyone would've held. most would've dumped it day one. i don't think the hate is bearish btw. in crypto, the worst thing that can happen is nobody talks about you. pump is the biggest lightning rod coin i've ever seen with this much mindshare, more personal than sol ever got. when sol ran the haters rage shorted it the whole way. pump did a 4 or 5x off the bottom a few months ago and we saw the same thing. next run i expect it bigger. chart wise it's a massive cup on the market cap pair with a handle forming now. weekly bear div on the usd pair might not be done, could go lower, but that probably needs btc materially lower and that's not my base case leave your emotions at the door. remember why all of are us are here. do you want to go on a personal crusade “to be right” or do you want to make money?

bought about 500k of uniswap. it's on fomo. mostly done buying, kept a little back in case midterms give us a dump boring pick? maybe, but uni is one of the few things in crypto with an actual product, actual users, and a track record across multiple cycles. the tokenomics were the problem for years and that got fixed last december, fee switch is on and it buys back and burns now. not governance trash anymore the main thesis is simple tokenized stocks, rwa, institutions, all of it is moving on chain and i think most of it lands on ethereum. uni benefits from all those flows. many thought this was going to happen in '24, but instead got dumped on relentlessly. what if it happens, but a cycle later? the secondary thesis is memes. if memes are a big part of this cycle, and i think they eventually will be, robinhood chain routes through uniswap. so the casino side of crypto pays uniswap too. maybe robinhood chain comes back, maybe it doesn't, but a wealth effect from majors brings on chain back at least once and uni catches that flow either way chart wise, uni/btc has been above the weekly ichi cloud for 2 months. in 2024 it broke above for one week and got smacked right back in. this time it held and it's riding the kijun. there's bear div on the 3d but rsi bounced off 50 and is curling up. all in all, strong uptrend against btc, which is how i judge alts let's ride

crypto tops first, stocks top later. 2017: btc topped in december, stocks put in their final high in sept 2018 and dumped into christmas. 2021: btc topped in november, s&p topped jan 2022. months of lag, sometimes close to a year. this cycle: btc topped oct 2025, drew down 50% into april, and stocks kept making new highs the whole time. a full year later they're only now cracking. crypto did an entire bear market by itself while stocks never had one the uncomfy part… every other cycle, the stock top kicked off crypto's worst leg. q4 2018 btc went 6k to 3k while the s&p dropped 20%. h1 2022 btc went 47k to 17k while the s&p dropped 20ish%. higher beta on the way down too my bet is “this time is different” that crypto “new lows” leg already happened. stocks do their correction now while we base. if i'm right it might look something like this. stocks 10, 20% down over a few months instead of a one week while crypto chops and grinds, holds up better, maybe another leg up late q1 or q2 once stocks find a floor. ‘27 better than ‘26 is a low bar, ‘26 was terrible binance hack, tech selloff, midterm nerves, crypto ate all of it and barely moved. i know the bybit and ftx playbook, strength for a week then the delayed dump. possible. so far it's holding tho. I’m holding/buying spot rn cuz the potential upside in case I’m wrong and we mark up sooner is much much higher than trying to grab 20% more coins on a “maybe we dump” scenario. no new lows anyways is my base case so might as well ride. most of this is waiting around. gonna be a lot of that coming up.

fud from every direction at once right now. macro ugly, inflation sticky, iran still going, ai trade "over", big tech down 10% in a day, intel down 25%, binance hacked for billions with half of it still unaccounted for, midterms hanging over all of it. about as close to everything breaking at the same time as you get. …and btc went from 81 to 76k lol. price could it go lower, chart still looks like shit and this may not be the bottom. but i expected crypto to be down way more on these headlines and it just isn't. holding up better than tech stocks during a binance hack is not something i thought would happen. credit where it’s due. two ways this goes. one, the strength is real, storm passes, midterms done, crypto is set up to rip because it already took the punches. two, it's a delayed dump, strength until it isn't, btc high 60s, alts shed 30-40%, range for a while, build a base, then go. i'm leaning the first. but i'm buying either way, because i think prices are a lot higher in 12 months and 2027 is a lot better than 2026 regardless of which path we take to get there. this might be one of the last windows to buy spot at prices that look cheap later. so i'm buying but i'm not saying what yet, still not done. will post it when i am though. survive

some lore, since this is one of the trades that changed the direction of my life financially late 2020 i had a “good” job, my wife worked, we had a two year old. i'd been learning ta and trading on the side for a couple years, still not confident, mostly following people smarter than me and doing my own work after i was reading wall street bets at the time. that’s a joke now but in 2020 wsb actually had writeups from people who did real work. you had to dig through the gamblers but there was signal. that's where i found gamestop $gme. there were maybe two or three thesis posts on it total. the roaring kitty guy and one or two others. nobody was in it yet. did some research over a few hours and then sold a bunch of etfs, some random stock, threw in some savings from sports betting, scraped together about 100k and put it in immediately (same day) that was a lot of money to me then and still is. i put every dollar of it in one shot at a $13 average, pre split. no dca, no tranches within a few days the ryan cohen news hit and price jumped to 16, 17. from there it was basically a straight line up i've had some well timed trades in my life and that one is right up there, and it had nothing to do with me being good at ta. it was chance. i happened to read the right post at the right moment. what was actually mine was the risk tolerance. i had zero fear and a let's go fucking get this attitude, and that's what put the whole 100k in instead of a sensible 10k or a dca strategy. a month or two later that position was worth 3-4 million dollars i had never seen money like that. it was just on a screen and i was still going to work every day. i told my wife we'd made a million dollars on the way up and she asked if i sold. i said no, it's going higher, we're going to retire off this. she told me it doesn't count until you sell she was right. i didn't listen. then robinhood turned off the buy button, which people forget about now, and the rally was over right there. i ended up selling most of it around a $200 average against a peak near 350. then i got cute and added on the way down and got rinsed on that part too walked away with low 7 figs after tax. so i left multiple millions on the table and it was still the best trade of my life up to that point. complete life changer i was so happy about. and for anyone reading this as a “great trade bro” story, it's not really about that . the trade itself was mostly luck. the part i actually controlled was being willing to put on risk that normal people won't put on, so that when the luck showed up i had enough size for it to really change my life. you can't control the timing or whether the thesis works but you can control whether you're sized in, and in position if it does

most ppl would make more money and have way fewer headaches if they just took a longer view. but everything around us is pushing the other way. fast, fast, fast, rotate, don't miss it what being in a rush actually does, at least for me, is make me take more decisions. and every decision is one more chance to be wrong. and with the number of tokens coming out now and how easy it is to buy them, the surface area for that just keeps growing how i've tried to handle it, with mixed results so far this cycle: core spot holdings that i refuse to touch. i don't even really think about them until conditions i set ahead of time get met. that's the anchor of the port then a much smaller active book, whatever fits your risk, somewhere between zero and 20% of the port, for rotations, trades, the thing trending on the timeline. that's where the itch goes if i notice myself whittling the active book down, that's my signal. park it back in the main bag if it's working and i think it keeps going, or in the second or third best idea. then scale the active side way back. keep 5% or so live if i genuinely have to be in and out of stuff, and leave it there none of this is complicated. the hard part is remembering to stick with the plan when times get good.

been thinking about how to set expectations for anything spot i buy from here. talking mid caps and the tier right below the majors, not btc eth sol the window for a full cycle liquid 10 or 20x was probably last spring and summer. any cash i didn’t deploy back then is not getting a 10x expectation attached to it right now. if it happens, great, but i’m anchoring to something like 3 to 5x, maybe 4 to 6x on a good pick, with more as upside if the cycle cooperates last cycle analogy here: buying coins this past spring and summer was buying sol under $20 in 2022 and 2023. right now feels more like buying sol around $50. still a great price, you still make real money (assuming you eventually sell), but the super discount is gone and that’s okay.

nfl picks Oct 25 we're back cuz it keeps me off the low tf charts and posting here holds me accountable. ref picks (4-1) +2.9u NO +4.5 (live bet, i just woke up game is in 1Q) ATL +2.5 BAL +2.5 MIA +4.5 LAR -3.5 reg. picks (1-2) -1.2u CAR -3.5 gl bros.

been kicking this around for a few months so putting it down here. just where my head is at going into midterms trump and bessent have every incentive to keep stocks propped up through november. it’s basically the only talking point left. and for the most part they’ve pulled it off the question i keep coming back to is what happens after? two paths and they both kind of land in the same spot if it’s a blue wave, that’s a built in excuse. "stocks were great until america elected democrats, now we can’t pass the agenda, look at your 401k, blame them." let some air out, hit the reset button if republicans hold or it’s a split, there’s still no election for two years. politicians care about reelection and consolidating power, red blue green whatever. so why keep pushing stimulus and "fighting" inflation at the same time (iran, tariffs you don’t even hear about anymore) when you don’t have to. take the foot off the gas, let things cool, then turn it back on in the back half of 27 into 28 when the next election starts to matter doesn’t mean straight down. could just be chop, down a few percent, who knows the counter is seasonality. choppy and uncertain going into midterms is normal, and the year after midterms has historically been the best of the four year cycle. so i’m holding both of these in my head at the same time note all the above was stock related. for crypto specifically: i think the bottom is in, so we bottomed faster than last cycle, and i don’t think the four year cycle is the guidepost it used to be. but looking at the btc chart it feels like we need at least one flush to scare people before the next leg. not "up only" from here my plan is simple. if btc gets into the mid to high 70s i’m calling that good enough and buying whatever spot alts i haven’t bought yet. if it keeps going past that, i either cut or hold and wait. those are the two outcomes overwhelming majority off my book has been spot zcash for months and that isn’t changing. i did sell a bunch of other stuff recently so i have real cash for the first time in a while. fully aware that might be pushing me toward wanting a dip so i'm a bit biased. anyway that’s the macro larp for today.

uncle pump here with some life/trading advice.. when you are feeling down bad, like every trade/decision you make is the wrong one, take a video of yourself. be raw. be honest. talk about what happened. why you didn't sell and round tripped. what you're feeling. what you'd do differently next time. then if/when the real bull market comes and you're up big and euphoric and convinced it'll never go down...go watch that video. put a reminder on your phone for every 6 months to watch it during the cycle so you don't forget. it will be 100x more powerful than any journal entry. who knows, it might be a factor that helps you actually keep your gains and change your life...

to me there are a lot of crypto charts that look like shit. underside retests of the 50 rsi, bear divs, etc on htf. i could ignore a few charts looking like this but it's quite a lot across crypto and i think it's a tell of things to come. this is just shorter term bearish. whatever dump we get im smashing the green button. if we don't get it then i guess i chase higher and seethe. base case: stocks do whatever they do, btc underperforms stocks and alts underperform btc. this just delays the eventual dump why? cuz i have sidelined stables to deploy lower to buy what? i dunno yet, just no memes im on time out.

i've met with itamar, he is a good dude and building this completely on his own, in his free time. i think it's a cool concept, and from what i understand, there is a need for a product like this especially in europe where fantasy sports leagues don't have a good payment platform to make sure you don't get scammed. so blockchain makes sense. give him a shout if you're interested in helping test it out.

sold all my strk today. bought at 4.5 cents two weeks ago, watched it go to 12c, sold at 6.6c. locked in about $350k. a week ago that number was a lot bigger and i round tripped most all of it. that's the price i paid for being patient with it and wanting to give some leeway price wise to see what would play out. i still think the starknet thesis is good. honestly i think it’s stronger today than when i bought. the L1 move is new since my entry, the quantum angle is still there, and i’d have no problem owning this coin again. the chart is a different story. this is the weekly against btc. it ran straight into the cloud and got hammered right back out in one candle. i wanted to see some strength this week after that run, any strength, and instead it got sold every single day. i waited as long as i could while it bleeding out. sellers are in control and with unlocks running into march maybe we don't see that changing soon. so it needs time. maybe a lot. or it goes up from here and i sold the bottom. i do that sometimes. it’s fine. no dig at starknet, i’ll be watching it and i’ll probably be back when the chart looks like holders instead of traders.

starknet is down about 20% today and i’m seeing a lot of takes that go something like: “everyone had to buy an absolute shitcoin like starknet over the weekend, and when garbage like that pumps you know the move is over and crypto is about to correct.” people can think that, it’s fine. what’s funny is a lot of the same people were bullish last night on a strong weekly close. my read on most of those posts is: “tell me you missed the move without telling me you missed the move” the token went 2.5x in five days. so yes, it’s off the high on a day when the whole market is red. after a move like that i’d be more surprised if it didn’t pull back. it’s coming into the 9c area, which looks like support to me. it could go a good bit lower than that and the structure would still look fine. and that’s only the chart. the reasons i bought it around 4 cents are all still there: the quantum angle, the privacy narrative, the team talking about becoming a layer 1, and more in the pipeline. i said in the original post that if this got going it would be a hated rally. seems about right so far.

not bad for a week. what’s funny is starknet is just getting started too. side note: if the cabal can send all the memes I’m down bad on that would be great. these gains aren’t making a big enough dent in the hole.

every cycle has had a coin you should've been measuring your gains against. in 2017 it was bitcoin, in 2021 it was bitcoin or eth, in 2024 it was sol. and each time after the first big impulse up it was “fairly” easy to ID. i think it's just as obvious this cycle and i'd split it in two. for regular alts you denominate in zcash. for memes you denominate in pump. the case for both is simple. they led through the later stages of the bear market. if this plays out anything like past cycles we could have two or three more years of uptrend, and i'd rather bet on the winners to keep winning. so if whatever alt you're holding can't beat Zec/pump from today's price, adjusted for the risk you're taking, you're better off selling it, buying zec/pump and being comfortable. nobody knows if most of the zec gains are in the rear view. from a cycle perspective that seems far fetched to me given where bitcoin and the other majors are. it's possible zec front ran them and has less left. there's no guarantee of that either, but the market cap is still tiny next to the other majors. the other piece is quantum. with all the fud this week, the people i saw stepping up were zcash leadership. talking about it out in the open, acknowledging the weaknesses, debating people. the rest of crypto was looking to them for how to react. my guess is 12 months ago they could've done the exact same thing on here and nobody would've cared/listened. i didn't see any of the bitcoin devs or core team doing that. maybe i missed it tho. in a vacuum that's a small thing, but it does show which team is engaged, who's nimble, who's open to other ideas. that stuff has always mattered and i think it matters a lot more as ai and quantum keep advancing.

been using @dreaming for crypto options and they just released v2 today. bought this $5 eth put before the dump a few days ago. not sure why I picked a strike so far out. but oh well. the app has clean UI and UX is amazing as well. I am not an expert in options and felt fully comfortable placing trades. spreads for most alts are wide, but as more ppl use the platform I think that will improve over time. times are tough and I’m getting repeatedly beaten down in the trenches so use my ref link so I can feed mi familia

picture a ship in the north atlantic. middle of the day, clear sky, giant iceberg dead ahead. everyone on deck can see it and nobody touches the wheel to change course that's kind of how i think about quantum and bitcoin. i have no idea when a quantum computer can actually break btc. nobody does. today i think it's mostly a boogeyman. but a lot of very powerful companies and people are working on it, so the chatter only gets louder from here. and the computer doesn't have to exist for the narrative to weigh on bitcoin for a while. lately the quantum fud seems to show up right around local bottoms (interesting). easy way to sidestep all of it imo is to own coins that are at least trying to prepare. they have a rough plan to get quantum resistant and they've already started on it, even if it takes them years. among other things that's a big reason i bought a lot of zcash and why i loaded a bunch of starknet last week. unironically still early

when i started, my retirement number was 3 to 5 million. somewhere during covid it became 8 to 10. part of it was inflation. everything got expensive fast and i wondered what if this continued for years. part of it was life. at that time, two kids and a third on the way changed what "enough" meant. i wanted to try and leave them a head start money wise since i saw the world getting more competitive over time. but if i'm honest, part of it was just watching the number get closer. 3 to 5 felt life changing when i was miles away from it. the moment it came into view i started noticing everything it didn't cover (mainly gifting "a lot" to the kids). i told myself the new number was about never thinking about money at all. true freedom. enough to gift my kids later in life. i don't have an answer just talking out loud

bought $740k of starknet this week (yes, seriously). here's the thinking, and i'll say up front that this is one of the grossest charts i've ever seen and makes me want to throw up. it's down about 99% from the launch highs and it's been down only for 2.5 years. i'd guess 99 out of 100 people who know what it is, hate it, and based on the pa i don't blame them at all. price leads narrative, so when a chart looks like that nobody has anything nice to say about it. that's kind of why i'm here. chart starting to look bulla: i'm seeing big bullish div on the weekly as well as rsi back above 50 and is currently retesting. price is curling up and building a base. to me that has the makings of a long term major bottom. narrative: "programmable zcash" zcash led this cycle and near ran after it as the next privacy play, and i think starknet could be third in line. there are deep connections between zcash cofounders and the starknet team. starknet shipped native privacy in june, so you can shield basically any token on the chain, and there's a private version of bitcoin on there too. the proofs it runs on are quantum resistant (nice buzzword for the future). there's also a proposal called ztarknet to build a starknet style layer 2 directly on top of zcash. so the simple version is it is "programmable zcash", zcash's little brother sitting at 315m mcap. this reminds me a lot of near. i bought about $2m of near around a $1.40 back in march and april. literally no one was talking about it, let alone buying it and most of my replies were some version of: "why near? it's a 2021 shitcoin that's down only, you're throwing your money away" now everyone loves near. the chart then looked a lot like the strk chart does now. it went on to roughly 3x from there in 6 months. too bad i didn't hold it. i got shaken out, which was bad execution on my part, but the thesis played out. the big difference is that near had intents, a product people actually used and adds value. starknet doesn't have that yet. hardly anyone uses the chain, revenue is basically nothing, and there's no app people care about. but these guys are well funded and seem to be shipping new things. where i could see a real product gain traction is private trading. on hyperliquid every wallet and every trade is public, so people get copy traded, whales get hunted, wallets get flagged. i think there's a market for a dex where you keep your own keys and nobody can see your positions. some of that is already live on starknet, private swaps and private perps, it just doesn't have users yet. and every private transaction costs 4 strk, so if that ever gets real usage the token is right in the path of it. i also played around with an options app on starknet called supervega for a few minutes. haven't placed a trade but the ui was clean. the token unlocks have been the main reason to hate the coin. 127m tokens a month. here's the good news, there are only 6 unlocks left and the last one is march of 2027. each one is around $5.5m at current prices and about 74% of supply is already out. the september one got absorbed without a problem. feels to me like the sellers are mostly done. the market usually front runs these things. last thing. if this does get going it has the potential to be a hated rally, and i kind of like that. a lot of people will want to fade it or short it because of what it did to them, and that kind of thing gets a coin talked about and can push a move further than it would normally go. the risks are obvious (mainly, no real usage). time will tell if i have gone full schizo, or if this will be a nice play. we'll see.