For several years, we’ve kept returning to the same paper about Smallville – a
@Stanford experiment where 25 AI agents live in a tiny pixelated town.
Today, the research behind it has become
@simile_ai, a $2B company less than six months after launch.
Of course, it didn’t appear overnight.
If you follow the research from Smallville onward, the papers read almost like a product roadmap. ↓
1. Social Simulacra (2022) → Simulated a social network.
Thousands of AI personas populated hypothetical online communities to see what conversations and social patterns would emerge.
2. Smallville (2023) → Gave agents a life.
25 agents got memory, plans, relationships, and time – and began behaving like residents of a tiny town.
3. 1,052 real people (2025) → Simulated a particular person.
Agents built from two-hour interviews reproduced people’s later survey answers at 83% of their own consistency – 86% with survey data added.
This study produced the famous “85%” claim: AI agents could reproduce people’s survey responses at ~85% of the accuracy with which people reproduced their own answers two weeks later.
4. SocSci210 (2025) → Scaled to populations.
2.9M responses from 400,491 people across 210 experiments helped a 14B Qwen model better reproduce human distributions on unseen studies.
5. Simile (2026) → Makes it useful for real decisions.
The company builds synthetic populations to test products, prices, messages, and policies before taking them to real people.
Now that company has raised more than $300 million and reached a $2 billion valuation. Today they are talking about eventually simulating all 8 billion people.
But the public evidence is nowhere near that ambition yet. That's also what makes you want to understand Simile more.
It raises 2 important questions:
How much of human behavior can we simulate? And what would we need to prove before we could trust this simulation?