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Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom)
@TomLeeTracker
Daily updates on Tom Lee’s market insights/research, the Fundstrat GRNY ETF, and BMNR. | Not affiliated with Tom Lee, Fundstrat or BMNR.
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TOM LEE AND BITMINE $BMNR JUST UPDATED THEIR ETHEREUM HOLDINGS Here are the updated holdings: 5.98 million $ETH up from 5.96M on September 14th 212 Bitcoin $BTC $714M cash $180 million stake in Beast Industries $105M stake in Eightco $ORBS Tom Lee and BMNR now own 4.9% of the total Ethereum supply, 98% of the way to their 5% target
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TOM LEE SAYS THIS DIP IS AN OVERREACTION He thinks falling inflation could quickly turn today’s selloff into a major rally: - Lee says the economy remains strong enough for earnings revisions to keep moving higher - He expects core PCE at 3.3% to fall back into the 2% range, which could trigger a positive market reaction - Cyclicals, tech, consumer discretionary and financials could all rebound sharply if inflation fears prove wrong
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MARK NEWTON SEES THE S&P RALLYING TO 7,800-7,850 IN THE NEXT MONTH - Markets have priced in a 95% chance of a hike this week, disappointing would trigger a negative reaction - 25 bps with a less-hawkish tone would rally bonds and push stocks higher - Fundstrats @MarkNewtonCMT says he sees inflation as transitory, oil is supply driven and will come down next year
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TOM LEE SAYS SEPTEMBER COULD BE A STRONG MONTH FOR STOCKS He thinks the market is set up for an upside surprise despite widespread September caution: - Inflation fears could ease as the jobs report, August CPI and the September FOMC decision play out - Lee thinks the odds of a September rate hike could fall all the way to zero - He sees $7,900 to $8,000 on the S&P 500 $SPX as a level where investors should be bullish, with today’s wall of worry creating a buying opportunity
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TOM LEE AND BITMINE $BMNR JUST UPDATED THEIR ETHEREUM HOLDINGS Here are the updated holdings: 5.93 million $ETH up from 5.90M on August 31st 211 Bitcoin bitcoin:native $593M cash $180 million stake in Beast Industries $91M stake in Eightco $ORBS Tom Lee and BMNR now own 4.9% of the total Ethereum supply, 97% of the way to their 5% target
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TOM LEE SAYS CRYPTO COULD BECOME THE SETTLEMENT RAILS FOR A $100T AI ECONOMY The argument is that machine-to-machine transactions may need blockchain rails more than traditional finance rails: - An agentic AI economy could see less value in traditional financial settlement systems - Real-world AI use cases may require microtransactions, instructions, taxation, and secure settlement - Tom Lee says if AI grows from a $10T to $100T economy, crypto may not stay stuck near $1.5T
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TOM LEE AND BITMINE $BMNR JUST UPDATED THEIR ETHEREUM HOLDINGS Here are the updated holdings: 5.85 million $ETH up from 5.82M on August 17th 210 Bitcoin $BTC $308M cash $180 million stake in Beast Industries $89M stake in Eightco $ORBS Tom Lee and BMNR now own 4.8% of the total Ethereum supply, 97% of the way to their 5% target
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BITWISE CIO MATT HOUGAN SAYS BITCOIN $BTC COULD GO NORTH OF $1M WHILE ETHEREUM ethereum:native BUILDS FINANCIAL RAILS The split is simple: Bitcoin is digital gold, Ethereum is financial infrastructure: - Bitcoin uses blockchain to deliver digital gold - Ethereum is built around moving financial assets, with stablecoins and tokenized assets primarily running on it - Crypto could trade less as one single asset class and more like internet stocks, with different networks winning different markets I wonder if Tom Lee @fundstrat sees it the same way.
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ZACH PANDL SAYS AI NEEDS BLOCKCHAIN TO SCALE @LowBeta thinks attention comes back to crypto because these are two complementary technologies growing together, not competing: - Agentic commerce is going to happen extensively on blockchain rails, since blockchains offer the transparency and trustlessness AI agents need - Blockchains can also build decentralized alternatives to centralized control of AI - Investors will need both crypto and AI exposure in their portfolios long term, and his approach stays long-run thinking and optimism
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ELON MUSK JUST EXPLAINED WHY HE IGNORES QUARTERLY EARNINGS, AND IT LINES UP WITH TOM LEE MORE THAN IT LOOKS He manages SpaceX on a 5-to-10-year horizon, the Mars spending was disclosed in the S1, and short-term earnings pressure mostly comes from managers whose own pay depends on quick results. Tom Lee's market thesis runs on earnings too, just measured in years, not quarters. He argues profits rising faster than prices is why the S&P is cheaper now than in January, with AI margin expansion still ahead. One ignores the quarter, the other tracks the multi-year trend. Both are pointing in the same direction: the long arc is what counts. I wonder if Tom Lee @fundstrat sees Musk's approach as the same long-term lens he applies to the market.
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TOM LEE: ETHEREUM HAS MORE DEVELOPERS THAN EVERY OTHER CHAIN COMBINED Unlike the 2022 bear market, the builder base keeps growing, and that's the tell: - Nearly 6,000 developers work on the EVM stack, more than all other chains on the table combined - Per Electric Capital, Ethereum is the number one ecosystem in Asia, Europe, North America, Africa, and South America - He returns to a 1987 Warren Buffett line: the market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually confirms it
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TOM LEE AND BITMINE $BMNR JUST UPDATED THEIR ETHEREUM HOLDINGS Here are the updated holdings: 5,777,468 $ETH up from 5.7M on July 13th 207 Bitcoin $BTC $385M cash $180M stake in Beast Industries $58M stake in Eightco $ORBS Tom Lee and BMNR now own 4.8% of the total Ethereum supply
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TOM LEE: "Bitcoin makes all of its gains in 10 days in a year." "If you exclude the 10 best days, Bitcoin loses 25% a year. You gotta essentially hold it to really capture the gains."
TOM LEE: THE STOCK MARKET IS CHEAPER TODAY THAN IT WAS IN JANUARY The S&P is up almost 10%, yet valuations have actually come down: - At the start of the year the street looked for 2027 earnings of 350, now it's 400, a $48 increase - The PE on 2027 earnings was 19.4 in January, and it's now 18.4, a full turn cheaper - Earnings rose faster than price, so the market is cheaper than on January 9th even with the S&P up nearly 10%
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TOM LEE: 7,800 FIRST, THEN A 10 TO 15% PULLBACK WORTH BUYING He still thinks the market is in an up phase before a correction comes later for understandable reasons: - Near term, he sees 7,700 to 7,800 first - Then a 10 to 15% pullback driven by the Fed, a major IPO unlock, and petroleum shortages - But earnings are strong, investors are offsides, and he thinks fund managers buy the dip
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TOM LEE: ANY SPACEX PULLBACK IS GOING TO BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY He won't put a price target on a company where all the growth is in the future: - A target today is almost a guess: it's like discounting 20 years of future value down to now - The coming share unlock will create more tradable shares and likely some selling pressure - Original investors hedging their holdings is exactly what turns into a buying opportunity
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