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Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom)
@TomLeeTracker
Daily updates on Tom Lee’s market insights/research, the Fundstrat GRNY ETF, and BMNR. | Not affiliated with Tom Lee, Fundstrat or BMNR.
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ELON MUSK JUST EXPLAINED WHY HE IGNORES QUARTERLY EARNINGS, AND IT LINES UP WITH TOM LEE MORE THAN IT LOOKS He manages SpaceX on a 5-to-10-year horizon, the Mars spending was disclosed in the S1, and short-term earnings pressure mostly comes from managers whose own pay depends on quick results. Tom Lee's market thesis runs on earnings too, just measured in years, not quarters. He argues profits rising faster than prices is why the S&P is cheaper now than in January, with AI margin expansion still ahead. One ignores the quarter, the other tracks the multi-year trend. Both are pointing in the same direction: the long arc is what counts. I wonder if Tom Lee @fundstrat sees Musk's approach as the same long-term lens he applies to the market.
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TOM LEE: ETHEREUM HAS MORE DEVELOPERS THAN EVERY OTHER CHAIN COMBINED Unlike the 2022 bear market, the builder base keeps growing, and that's the tell: - Nearly 6,000 developers work on the EVM stack, more than all other chains on the table combined - Per Electric Capital, Ethereum is the number one ecosystem in Asia, Europe, North America, Africa, and South America - He returns to a 1987 Warren Buffett line: the market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually confirms it
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TOM LEE AND BITMINE $BMNR JUST UPDATED THEIR ETHEREUM HOLDINGS Here are the updated holdings: 5,777,468 $ETH up from 5.7M on July 13th 207 Bitcoin $BTC $385M cash $180M stake in Beast Industries $58M stake in Eightco $ORBS Tom Lee and BMNR now own 4.8% of the total Ethereum supply
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TOM LEE: "Bitcoin makes all of its gains in 10 days in a year." "If you exclude the 10 best days, Bitcoin loses 25% a year. You gotta essentially hold it to really capture the gains."
TOM LEE: THE STOCK MARKET IS CHEAPER TODAY THAN IT WAS IN JANUARY The S&P is up almost 10%, yet valuations have actually come down: - At the start of the year the street looked for 2027 earnings of 350, now it's 400, a $48 increase - The PE on 2027 earnings was 19.4 in January, and it's now 18.4, a full turn cheaper - Earnings rose faster than price, so the market is cheaper than on January 9th even with the S&P up nearly 10%
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TOM LEE: 7,800 FIRST, THEN A 10 TO 15% PULLBACK WORTH BUYING He still thinks the market is in an up phase before a correction comes later for understandable reasons: - Near term, he sees 7,700 to 7,800 first - Then a 10 to 15% pullback driven by the Fed, a major IPO unlock, and petroleum shortages - But earnings are strong, investors are offsides, and he thinks fund managers buy the dip
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TOM LEE: ANY SPACEX PULLBACK IS GOING TO BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY He won't put a price target on a company where all the growth is in the future: - A target today is almost a guess: it's like discounting 20 years of future value down to now - The coming share unlock will create more tradable shares and likely some selling pressure - Original investors hedging their holdings is exactly what turns into a buying opportunity
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