Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom)
@TomLeeTracker
Daily updates on Tom Lee’s market insights/research, the Fundstrat GRNY ETF, and BMNR. | Not affiliated with Tom Lee, Fundstrat or BMNR.
112 Following 54K Followers
🚨 TOM LEE ON IF THERE IS AN AI BUBBLE:
"I think we're FAR from a bubble"
🚨 TOM LEE ON CRYPTO:
"I think people kinda aren't bullish enough, actually..."
"I think you're gonna see some MONSTER moves in crypto prices"
🚨 TOM LEE @fundstrat ON WHY THIS CRYPTO CYCLE WILL BE MUCH BIGGER THAN THE LAST 2:
"In 2016, 2017, that bull market was really an ICO story, but it was principally retail investors. It didn't take a lot of people to cause Bitcoin to hit 18,000"
What's different now:
"This bull cycle is coming at a time when institutions are building a lot of products. That's bigger players, bigger dollars"
His call:
"I think people kinda aren't bullish enough, actually. I think you're gonna see some monster moves in crypto prices"
Show more
TOM LEE SAYS MARKETS ARE A COILED SPRING AND HE'S BUYING THE AI DIP
@fundstrat believes falling yields and declining Fed rate hike expectations are creating a bullish setup:
- The 10-year Treasury yield surged from 4.6% to nearly 5.5%, with fears of 6%, but has since fallen sharply
- The probability of an October Fed hike dropped from 55% to 5%, while December hike odds fell from 98% to 67%
- These dovish developments have created what Lee calls a "coiled spring" in markets, reinforcing his decision to buy the AI selloff
Show more
TOM LEE SAYS STOCKS COULD RALLY VERY STRONGLY AFTER THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS
@fundstrat believes the current market uncertainty is creating a buying opportunity:
- Defensive sectors like healthcare, staples, utilities, and waste services are rallying, signalling that investors are nervous
- Tech stocks appear to be reaching key support levels, according to Mark Newton
- The next few weeks of risk-off trading could offer a buying opportunity before a broad and powerful post-midterm rally
Show more
🚨 TOM LEE ON SUPERINTELLIGENCE/AI:
"ChatGPT is basically crossing its 3rd anniversary. I think we're so early in this AI trade that it's understandable for people to be worried" 👀
🚨 $BMNR BITMINE CHAIRMAN TOM LEE @fundstrat ON WHY THE AI SELL-OFF IS A "COILED SPRING":
"This is what I view as a coiled spring because the fundamentals have been holding in"
His history lesson:
"In 1997, 3 years after the launch of the public internet... Cisco, which was the biggest stock at the time, had a massive 50% drawdown... went down to 5, a year later was 18"
Why it's the same setup:
"Alan Greenspan was saying we had irrational exuberance, and then later kind of hinted at preemptive hikes, not too dissimilar to today"
His bottom line:
"ChatGPT is basically crossing its 3rd anniversary. I think we're so early in this AI trade that it's understandable for people to be worried" 👀
Show more
IF YOU INVESTED $10,000 INTO TOM LEE'S GRANNY SHOTS ETF $GRNY, HERE'S HOW MUCH OF EACH TOP HOLDING YOU'D OWN
$288 of MicroStrategy $MSTR
$286 of Tesla $TSLA
$276 of Deere & Co $DE
$275 of Eli Lilly $LLY
$269 of Philip Morris $PM
$269 of Lockheed Martin $LMT
$267 of Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
$267 of Apple $AAPL
$266 of Microsoft $MSFT
$265 of Costco $COST
Show more
HERE ARE THE TOP 10 HOLDINGS IN TOM LEE'S GRANNY SHOTS ETF $GRNY
🥇 MicroStrategy $MSTR: 2.88%
🥈 Tesla $TSLA: 2.86%
🥉 Deere & Co $DE: 2.76%
4. Eli Lilly $LLY: 2.75%
5. Philip Morris $PM: 2.69%
6. Lockheed Martin $LMT: 2.69%
7. Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: 2.67%
8. Apple $AAPL: 2.67%
9. Microsoft $MSFT: 2.66%
10. Costco $COST: 2.65%
Show more
🚨 TOM LEE ON AI:
"I don't think there's too much money being thrown at AI today..."
"Artificial Intelligence is a MORE important infrastructure build arguably than mobile, and it's about the same dollars."
Show more
🚨 $BMNR BITMINE CHAIRMAN TOM LEE @fundstrat ON WHY HE'S BUYING THE TECH SELL-OFF:
"I think we're near the end stages of the sell-off, because it's become a consensus short to be shorting tech"
What changed:
"The Fed, quite hawkish, now it's flipping potentially dovish, and interest rates, which were touching 5, people fearing 6%, are now back below 5%"
On the AI spending fears:
"I don't think there's too much money being thrown at AI today... AI is a more important infrastructure build arguably than mobile, and it's about the same dollars"
The risks left:
"Debt markets are kind of closed at the moment, and of course, the uncertainty about the war" 👀
Show more
TOM LEE COMPARES TODAY'S AI STOCK CORRECTION TO CISCO'S 40% CRASH IN 1997
@fundstrat explains why the current AI selloff looks similar to the early internet boom:
- Cisco $CSCO surged from $0.80 in 1994 to $9 in 1997 as the public internet began taking off
- Alan Greenspan's warnings about irrational exuberance and preemptive monetary tightening triggered selling pressure
- Slowing quarterly revenue growth and fears of competition pushed Cisco down 40% from $9 to $5, a correction Lee compares to today's AI stocks
Show more
HERE ARE THE TOP 10 HOLDINGS IN TOM LEE'S GRANNY SHOTS ETF $GRNY
🥇 MicroStrategy $MSTR: 2.88%
🥈 Tesla $TSLA: 2.86%
🥉 Deere & Co $DE: 2.76%
4. Eli Lilly $LLY: 2.75%
5. Philip Morris $PM: 2.69%
6. Lockheed Martin $LMT: 2.69%
7. Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: 2.67%
8. Apple $AAPL: 2.67%
9. Microsoft $MSFT: 2.66%
10. Costco $COST: 2.65%
Show more
NOVEMBER HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN THE BEST MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR THE S&P 500 $SPX
Going back through the data, it averages a +1.9% gain, ahead of every other month.
TOM LEE SAYS THE TECH SELLOFF IS NEARING ITS END AND HE WOULD BUY THE DIP
@fundstrat believes several major market headwinds are fading while AI investment remains justified:
- AI infrastructure spending is not excessive, with mobile networks and roadways each requiring roughly $25 trillion in investment
- Shorting tech has become a consensus trade, suggesting the selloff may be in its final stages
- Interest rates have fallen back below 5% and the Fed could turn dovish, although debt market restrictions and war uncertainty remain risks
Show more
🚨 TOM LEE ON ETHEREUM:
"In the next 12 months, I think $ETH will have much higher prices than 10,000"
🚨 $BMNR BITMINE CHAIRMAN TOM LEE @fundstrat ON WHY ETHEREUM COULD BLOW PAST $10k
"In the next 12 months, I think $ETH will have much higher prices than 10,000"
His reasoning:
"I think it's gonna be one of the bigger crypto cycles"
Show more
TOM LEE EXPECTS A HUGE INSTITUTIONAL ROTATION INTO CRYPTO IN Q4
@fundstrat believes institutional investors remain significantly underexposed to crypto despite its strong performance:
- Financial institutions are recommending crypto allocations ranging from 2% to 10%, yet the vast majority of institutional investors still have no exposure
- Ethereum ethereum:native surged 65% in Q3, while the S&P 500 $SPX was roughly flat, according to Lee
- With institutional allocations still low, Lee expects a massive rotation into crypto during the fourth quarter
Show more
TOM LEE SAYS AI FUNDING CONCERNS ARE PREVENTING A BUBBLE FROM FORMING
@fundstrat believes tighter credit markets are introducing discipline into the AI industry:
- Rising funding costs are forcing greater financial discipline, preventing excessive investment from creating a bubble
- AI debt issuance is equivalent to 50% of Treasury issuance, highlighting the enormous scale of funding needs
- Credit default swaps have widened, signalling higher perceived default risk, while AI debt issuance has already declined, creating a natural check on spending
Show more
TOM LEE SAYS OPENAI JUST ACCOUNTED FOR 81% OF ALL MATH DISCOVERIES FROM THE PAST THREE YEARS
@fundstrat calls the latest breakthroughs in artificial intelligence "otherworldly":
- OpenAI reportedly solved 771 mathematical problems, representing 81% of all math discoveries over the past three years, according to Lee
- Each model took an average of just three hours to accomplish the work
- The breakthrough was so substantial that many mathematicians were reportedly upset by the results
Show more
TOM LEE SAYS STOCKS COULD RALLY STRONGLY AFTER THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS
@fundstrat believes the current market uncertainty is creating a buying opportunity:
- Defensive sectors like healthcare, staples, utilities, and waste services are rallying, signalling investors are nervous
- Tech stocks appear to be reaching key support levels, according to Mark Newton
- The next few weeks of risk-off trading could offer a buying opportunity before a broad and powerful post-midterm rally
Show more
TOM LEE SAYS HYPERLIQUID $HYPE COULD GO PARABOLIC IF ITS DAT REACHES 50% OF SUPPLY
@fundstrat explains how digital asset treasuries could drive massive crypto price increases:
- DATs trading below NAV allow investors to gain crypto exposure at a discount, like buying $85,000 worth of Bitcoin $BTC for $60,000
- DATs trading above NAV can raise capital to buy more crypto, removing supply from the market and potentially driving prices higher
- A Hyperliquid-focused DAT already owns 14% of HYPE's supply and continues buying, with Lee suggesting the token could go parabolic if that share reaches 50%
Show more
TOM LEE SAYS STOCKS COULD RALLY VERY STRONGLY AFTER THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS
@fundstrat believes the current market uncertainty is creating a buying opportunity:
- Defensive sectors like healthcare, staples, utilities, and waste services are rallying, signalling investors are nervous
- Tech stocks appear to be reaching key support levels, according to Mark Newton
- The next few weeks of risk-off trading could offer a buying opportunity before a broad and powerful post-midterm rally
Traders see a 72% chance of the S&P 500 $SPX reaching 8,000 by year-end.
Show more
🚨 TOM LEE ON THE FED DECISION TODAY:
"I was happy to hear him say that he didn't think AI growth is necessarily inflationary."
🚨 @Fundstrat CIO TOM LEE ON FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETS:
"The Fed kind of rattled markets in September. Now we have a Fed that's committing to the same targets."
The most important thing Warsh said:
"I was happy to hear him say that he didn't think AI growth is necessarily inflationary."
What that unlocks:
"Now we can say good news is good news. You're gonna be in a position to say big beats are great because the Fed is not gonna try to slow AI growth."
Show more
GOOGLE $GOOGL JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
ALPHABET $GOOGL JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS
- EPS: $2.12
- Revenue: $127.6B, missing expectations of $128.22B 🔴
- Google Cloud Revenue: $30.7B
- Search & Other: $63.4B
- YouTube Ads: $11.2B
- CapEx: $51.4B
- CapEx to Revenue: ~40.3%
Key Updates:
- Equity Securities: $8.7B net unrealized loss (EPS impact $0.55)
- Stock Repurchases: $0
Show more
