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🚨 Hudson River Trading, one of Wall Street’s biggest market makers, has begun trading on Kalshi, Bloomberg reports.
The firm is trading financial contracts, including trades on short-term asset price moves.
Jump Trading and Susquehanna have also built teams to trade prediction markets.
HRT also participated in Kalshi’s $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation.
Prediction markets are becoming a big part of Wall Street’s trading toolkit...
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Prediction markets are now helping people hedge the risk of getting paid late.
Former college athletes are waiting on BILLIONS in NCAA settlement money.
A contract that pays if distributions are delayed could help offset the financial cost of waiting...
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Congress created a federal framework for derivatives markets.
Allowing states to impose conflicting rules will undermine that system.
Utah is trying to set a dangerous precedent…
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Small businesses are starting to use prediction markets to hedge tariffs, shipping costs, and bad weather.
Tea company Zest used a prediction market payout to help offset tariff-related lost sales.
Its founder also helped develop a contract that pays when container shipping costs exceed certain thresholds.
Other businesses are experimenting with weather contracts to hedge canceled kayak trips, slower ice cream sales, and crop damage.
Prediction markets are leveling the playing field for small businesses.
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Prediction markets host traders who buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities.
Here's how they compare with sportsbooks which set prices and act as the counterparty:
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⚠️ Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi is warning that the odds of a serious Federal Reserve policy mistake are “uncomfortably high and rising.”
His argument: Higher rates cannot fix supply-driven inflation, but they can trigger layoffs and weaken an already fragile non-AI economy.
Worth reading:
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BREAKING: U.S. debt officially just passed $40 trillion for the first time.
1/3rd of the debt must be refinanced within the next year.
If Japan dumps U.S. treasuries in an attempt to save the Yen-
U.S. Treasury yields will surge, despite the fact the 30 YR is already at its highest level since 2007.
Refinancing is about to get a lot more interesting.
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