Will
@WClemente
market enjoyer. not investment advice, personal opinions which change, etc.
2.9K Following 795.4K Followers
If they’re going to top the AI bubble can we start talking about how BTC is a hedge against excess liquidity to backstop the burst? Thx 👍
Wanted to get a better look at BTC bear market rallies.
Seems like as a general rule, the more time that passes, the probability that big moves stick rises. Current move is well out of danger zone, but not yet all clear.
~70-75% odds that we have cycle bottomed based on this.
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Some moon math for BTC:
- Total pension fund assets: ~$70T
- 1% of pension fund assets: $700B
- Assumption of conservative 10x multiplier for mkt cap increase per dollar inflow
- Bitcoin current market cap: $1.5T
Any minor fixed allocation/inflows would send corn multiples...
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Small holders (<1 BTC) have been stacking Bitcoin like crazy. They actually kind of nailed the bottom last cycle, hopefully can do it again this time around.
Bitcoin denominated in Gold has been in a giant range for over 5 years now.
After several months of chopping around at the lows, looks like it has now printed a deviation + reclaim, exactly what long term holders would want to see for now.
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The odds of you existing are 10^2,685,000 and within that, the odds of you being born in a first world country are about 1 in 7. Have a great weekend
One of the most important trend indicators over the last decade for Bitcoin is the on-chain cost basis of short term holders (<5 months).
For multi-month views, seems like a pretty clear trend shift from bearish to bullish at this point.
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A LOT of open interest (futures positions) piling in here on BTC... with implied volatility at multi-year lows, feels like a big move is coming soon in some fashion.
If you haven't already sold because of DAT overhang, quantum concerns, odds of clarity act passing reaching <20%, or relative price underperformance, what would cause informed participants to take down their BTC allocation now (outside of a broader macro sell off)?
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Just made my first spot Bitcoin purchases (via ETFs) in a long time. Wrote about why here.
