🚨 EVERYONE IS CALLING $SPCX A FAILED IPO.
That's exactly how Facebook created one of the biggest buying opportunities in market history.
Most people only see the chart.
I see the same script playing out again.
Months ago I said this wasn't the beginning of a bull market.
It was the beginning of an unlock cycle.
Today, $SPCX is already down almost 50%.
Exactly as expected.
Now go back to 2012.
Facebook IPOs.
Retail goes all in.
The media calls it unstoppable.
Then the unlocks begin.
Millions of insider shares hit the market.
Every new wave creates another selloff.
The stock loses more than 50%.
Headlines everywhere:
• "Failed IPO."
• "Massive disappointment."
• "Overvalued."
Sound familiar?
Then something changed.
The sellers disappeared.
The supply dried up.
And Facebook became one of the greatest investments of the decade.
Now look at SpaceX.
The company isn't collapsing.
The share supply is expanding.
That's a completely different story.
Right now only a small portion of shares trade freely.
The biggest unlocks are still ahead.
Q2 earnings.
September.
October.
November.
Every unlock adds fresh supply.
Every wave shakes out another group of impatient holders.
That's exactly what happened to Facebook.
That's exactly why I'm not chasing this bounce.
I'm waiting for the moment when nobody wants to own it anymore.
Because that's where institutions usually start buying.
Not during IPO hype.
Not after a green candle.
After months of pain.
After forced selling ends.
That's when the real trend begins.
History rarely repeats perfectly.
But it rhymes far more often than people think.
My roadmap hasn't changed.
I'm waiting for the final washout.
The best $SPCX entry won't happen while everyone is watching.
It'll happen after everyone gives up.
Bookmark this tweet.
Most people will remember it only after the move has already started.
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🚨 THIS IS HOW $SPCX ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT FROM HERE
Day 1 opens with a pump - retail floods in, peak FOMO, headlines everywhere
Insiders sell into every green candle
That's not cynicism - that's how 93% of major IPOs have behaved historically
Then comes the part nobody talks about on launch day:
Months of slow bleed while retail holds and prays
Momentum fades, attention moves on and another narrative takes over
Most day-one buyers end up underwater - sometimes for years
Meta IPO'd at $38 in 2012, dropped 53% in 100 days
The people who waited 6 months bought at $17 from the people who bought the hype
Same pattern now
$1.77T valuation at listing with 95% insider ownership is not an entry point
It's an exit point - just not yours
Two ways to play this:
1. Buy today and fund the insider unlock schedule
2. Wait until nobody cares, valuation reflects reality, and you buy from the people who bought from them
Same asset, six months apart - completely different trade
I'll be watching the 6-month window
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated
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JUST IN: SpaceX is now America's 6th most valuable public company
🚨 WARNING: NVIDIA x ELON MUSK DEAL IS BUILT ON FAKE NUMBERS!!
Michael Burry published an analysis calling the structure “Fugazi”, meaning fake.
If the structure is real, we could be heading for a COLLAPSE:
He is alleging that BILLIONS of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing.
Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 BILLION worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor.
Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 BILLION of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.
Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.
But here is what Burry is flagging.
Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 BILLION in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.
They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.
Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 BILLION as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.
Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.
Valor needed $3.5 BILLION in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 TRILLION under management and $834 BILLION specifically in private credit.
Apollo raised the $3.5 BILLION, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.
Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.
When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.
The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.
Athene holds $74.2 BILLION in reserves. It has moved $217 BILLION in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.
Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 BILLION, is classified as Level 3 assets.
Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.
The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.
Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.
Nvidia books the revenue.
Apollo collects the fees.
xAI gets the computing power.
And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 BILLION in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.
I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years.
When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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JUST IN: Jensen Huang says Nvidia market cap will be "much higher" over the next few years