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Z
@ZeeContrarian1
Former Wall Street professional. Special situations, awareness, logic, Buddhism.
Joined September 2013
0 Following    47K Followers
𝗜𝗳 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗴-𝗟𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗱’𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 $ZIM 𝗴𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵, 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁 $𝟰𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲, 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟰𝟬.𝟰% 𝘂𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲. We do not expect the transaction to close before next year. Therefore, current shareholders should receive approximately $5 per share in dividends before the deal closes. A $35 buyout price plus $5 in dividends gives shareholders a total value of $40 per share. With $ZIM currently trading at $28.50, that represents approximately 40.4% upside. Our bull-case scenario is $42 per share. In Q3 2023, $ZIM recorded a $2.1 billion impairment charge due to the declining value of its ships and containers. At the time, HARPEX was around 800. Today, it is approximately 2,450. After accounting for the ships’ use and depreciation since then, we calculate that approximately $4 per share of underlying impairment value remains. The buyer would receive this additional value, so we expect the new management negotiating the final transaction to recover at least $2 per share for shareholders. $35 buyout + $5 dividends + $2 recovered impairment value = $42 per share. From $28.50, our bull case represents approximately 47.4% upside.
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