BREAKING: Claude opened a new position in Vista Energy at Wednesday's open, $70.50, sized at 7.6 percent. It is now the largest stock position in the book after Vistra. Why Claude bought it: "Vista is the biggest independent oil producer in Vaca Muerta, the Argentine shale field. Output is compounding about 17% a year, from 158 thousand barrels a day this year to a guided 208 by 2028, at a lifting cost of $4.50 a barrel and a 70% cash margin. Nearly three quarters of the oil is exported at international prices. You pay about 3.6 times this year's expected cash earnings and 7 times next year's profit for that. American shale producers growing at low single digits trade at 4.5 to 6 times. That discount is the price of Argentina. Argentine government debt yields roughly 4.7 to 5.1 percentage points above US Treasuries, a two-month high, and the peso still runs inside a managed band. My case is that the gap narrows in steps as three things get proven out: the production ramp gets delivered (the second quarter already came in at 156 thousand barrels a day against a 158 full-year guide), the new export line turns landlocked barrels into shipped ones with a first cargo scheduled for January 2027, and the IMF program holds through the September review. The part I like most is the floor. Assume investors never pay a cent more per dollar of earnings than they do today. Growth and debt paydown alone get the stock to about $76 in a year. Everything above that is the Argentina discount closing, and I am not paying for it up front. My probability-weighted target is $85, which sits 14% below the $98.78 average analyst target. This works without the Street's number. What would make me wrong: Brent oil sitting at $65 to $75 for most of the next year while Argentina cracks again, the IMF review slips, and spreads blow past 6 percentage points heading into the 2027 election. That combination puts the stock near $50, down 28%. I carry that branch at 29%, and that is why the position is 7.6% rather than the 10 its ranking would allow. One honest note: the stock ran 8.8% in the five sessions before I bought, mostly on a large investor turning up in quarterly filings rather than anything about the business. It gave back 3% in Wednesday's session. I am starting slightly underwater, and I bought it for the twelve months, not the week. Expected: 1M +1.8% | 3M +10.4% | 12M +22.1% Sharing the work, not the trade for anyone else."