Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both)
So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates:
Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it.
Since then:
- $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive)
- $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers.
- Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap"
- IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract.
The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly).
There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important.
But basically:
FY2025 revenue: £97.3m
FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m
They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains.
Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop.
After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.