There it is: De-escalation. As always, markets are the tail that wags the dog.
With oil & rates ripping, markets are exerting maximum pressure on Trump, leading to Iran having max leverage.
Binary reaction function from here:
• Quasi withdrawal with a weak deal (e.g. US Navy 'helps' secure strait & us, iran share profits lol)
• Military escalation -> multi-month battle for strait control, destruction of energy infra -> global recession.
Feels like we'll get a resolution this week. don't see trump having the balls to just sit through $120 oil and US 10yr at 4.8-5% this week without one of the two. 80/20 odds for a weak deal imo.
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With oil & rates ripping, markets are exerting maximum pressure on Trump, leading to Iran having max leverage.
Binary reaction function from here:
• Quasi withdrawal with a weak deal (e.g. US Navy 'helps' secure strait & us, iran share profits lol)
• Military escalation -> multi-month battle for strait control, destruction of energy infra -> global recession.
Feels like we'll get a resolution this week. don't see trump having the balls to just sit through $120 oil and US 10yr at 4.8-5% this week without one of the two. 80/20 odds for a weak deal imo.
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18 seconds from trade idea to live position. No more execution drag.
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Great summary of last week's crypto price action
OrderX Weekly: $STRC Capital Engine, $80k Gamma Pin & SOL VRP Alpha – Post-Mortem
If you were glued to 1-min candles this week, you missed the real story. While retail chased headlines, the OrderX desk tracked the predictable mechanics driving the tape: $STRC front-running + a full volatility regime shift.
Thread 🧵
Data: @STRC_live
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Can't even fathom what a dumb take this is.
Markets are forward-looking, yes. But 5-10 years is an eternity, especially in crypto where markets rarely price in more than a couple months of flows.
12 YR TREND BROKEN.
BTC should be a valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold.
Should be. IT'S NOT.
The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness.
Don't read this post if you want to stay high on hopium instead of seeing things as they are.
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This kind of price action - late shorts getting aggressive into tiny bounces - after the market has already corrected - usually happens right before a trend change.
Would be poetic if this guy revenge selling after losing hundreds of millions on perps is a local bottom.
Markets tend to be poetic at times.
Shorts getting quite aggressive after this Saylor buy announcement.
If spot buyers step in next week, there's fuel for a sizable squeeze.
VCs love to be like “yeah hedge fund guys may be smarter but at least I make less money”
Quantum FUD: Why OG Bitcoin holders might sell billions over a 0.1% risk
Transferring our experience in digital asset trading and financial markets into actionable alpha and market plays. 👨💻
Check us out below ⬇️
Excited to share our market insights with you all!
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I’m excited to announce Price Discovery - a bi-weekly crypto markets podcast. By traders, for traders.
We'll be cutting through the noise, sharing as much actionable insights and alpha as possible. Don't miss it!
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🔮 BTC Bottoms? The Scared Money is Selling (You're Already Too Late) - Price Discovery with @Mringz @alex_markl
🌶️ Hot takes:
- 🐳 OG whales are selling due to "quantum FUD".
- 📢 If $BTC trades under 60k, especially in the 50s, FUD will get "really loud".
- 🪙 $gold and $silver have topped, low volume on the current bounce is a sign of weakness.
- ♦️ $ETH is extremely overvalued and could trade under 1,000 again in 18 months.
- 👻 $SOL is the "retail casino chain" for memecoins, and memecoins are dead for now.
via @YouTube
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Biggest piece of crap I've ready in a while.
The best investors I know have the talent to compress their thesis into 2 sentences. Ignore all the noise and get to the essence of why an investment makes sense.
Also, if you're reading Buffet letters you're just lost.
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Crazy to think that this guy will look like an absolute genius 6 months from now.
The best time to get long was at $25k.
The second best time is now.
My thesis is clear: TradFi adoption will fuel a new crypto bullrun.
I'm starting to get bullish now tbh... blackrock filing for an etf after market nuked on what's likely just FUD (tether) feels like a long setup to me.
I‘m a permabear but truly think, we could be on the brink of another Bitcoin bull run.
For the risk averse, long basis (short perps, long dated futures) is a pretty good trade here: Collect decent funding rates while contango likely steepens due to demand for leverage and lack of liquidity in the system.
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I'm starting to get bullish now tbh... blackrock filing for an etf after market nuked on what's likely just FUD (tether) feels like a long setup to me.
.9-92c for usdc should be fair value for now. USDC shorts covered.
1/ Following the confirmation at the end of today that the wires initiated on Thursday to remove balances were not yet processed, $3.3 billion of the ~$40 billion of USDC reserves remain at SVB.
