A hidden divergence like this is a trend continuation signal.
CHART:
After 1 year of outperformance by GOLD, the main 17yr historical trend of BTC OUTPERFORMANCE has resumed.
Published in 2002, Fisher Transform picks up turning points in price action.
BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out.
Latest cross is the 4th on record.
I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%.
We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.
I lost both my parents to cancer by 18. Thought I would die young too.
Then uncovered a hack…
At 28 I quit my corporate engineering job and traveled the world. A new place every 2-3 days.
I lived a lifetime in that 6 month trip.
Upon return a colleague said “hey, I thought you left 2 months ago”, yet it had felt like 2 years.
12x time compression!
I went on to quit my job, started businesses and lived nomadically optimising my life, not for happiness or money, but for newness.
Please share your hacks.
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I’m a retired brain surgeon and I wanna tell you why you feel like life is passing by. I just need one minute to explain this to you so hang in there.
Repetitive daily routines stop the brain from recording clear detailed memories. When every day looks the same, your brain does not track time the same as a clock does. It tracks change. If nothing new happens then days, months, and years start to blur together.
This is know as Time compression. When life lacks variety, your brain compresses past days together, making it feel like time is sped up.
To stop feeling like life is passing you by, add new experiences to your life. Break routine habits, like changing your daily home routine, taking a different route to work, or trying a new hobby.
Schedule small trips or plan new adventures so your days do not blend together.
Practice mindfulness by staying fully focused on what you are doing right now and not trying to race off to the next task.
Keep a journal and write down happy memories or memorable parts of the day before you go to sleep.
Take deep, calm breaths when you feel anxious or rushed to return your focus to the moment.
You can and you will retrain your brain to not feel like life is passing you by by following these few simple measures.
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My portfolio company Biltz Wallet just released a feature that lets you setup wallets for friends and family who may be new to BTC while you do the tricky work of secure custody of the private key.
Onboarding someone to Bitcoin has always meant the same thing:
“Write down these 12 words. Don’t lose them.”
We removed that step.
You become the custodian for your community.
Introducing Managed Accounts🧵
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Interesting read.
Using River's inflow numbers over the next 3-5 years, but accounting for changes in market elasticity over time (MVRV oscillations), I get a range of approx 220k-600k per BTC.
Bitcoins TAM
It’s much bigger than just gold.
It's almost been a decade since the last time this happened...
The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).
BTC MOVES TO A 6-8 YEAR CYCLE?
BTC has been locked into the gravity of a 4 year orbit... it was subject to strong internal forces of its halvening... a clockwork 4yr supply rate shock.
Meanwhile TradFi is on a 6-8 year short term debt cycle.
Given BTC's internal forces are de minimis at 0.8% new supply per year, soon to be 0.4%... we may be witnessing right now its transition to a 6-8 year cycle.
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@natbrunell I thought it was funny and classy at the same time 😂
It found its home above
@Excellion’s BTC Bull.
Gold is 32 Trilly.
The greatest delusion exported by US Government and amplified by Wall St is that gold is a financial asset.
It was money for 1000s of years.
If it had continued to back all the world’s money today it would be worth 103T.
That’s what BTC is going for ($5M per coin in today’s money).
The global fiat experiment is 55 years old vs 1000s of years for hard money.
Seems like a long shot, even delusional, from the perspective anyone living in modern financial times, but not for students of history.
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Gold is 32 Trilly.
The greatest delusion exported by US Government and amplified by Wall St is that gold is a financial asset.
It was money for 1000s of years.
If it had continued to back all the world’s money today it would be worth 103T.
That’s what BTC is going for ($5M per coin in today’s money).
The global fiat experiment is 55 years old vs 1000s of years for hard money.
Seems like a long shot, even delusional, from the perspective anyone living in modern financial times, but not for students of history.
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@willywoo Bitcoin's next bull market will be cheered on by Wall Street, the largest banks, and at least 20 nation-states. This may be the last chance to front-run them.
Look at the comments... people can't fathom BTC has higher adoption than S&P500 and Gold.
The trick is to understand 4-5% of the world use SPX+Gold as an investment while BTC is also used to solve a monetary problem - especially where capital controls or hyperinflation exists.
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~4% of the world population owns SP500
~4.5% owns gold
~5% owns BTC
THE REAL QUESTION: Where does it top out?
5% → BTC is no more than a financial asset
50% → we have the separation of money and state
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~4% of the world population owns SP500
~4.5% owns gold
~5% owns BTC
THE REAL QUESTION: Where does it top out?
5% → BTC is no more than a financial asset
50% → we have the separation of money and state
Show more
Sobering numbers
1.57M BTC lost via self custody
1.51M BTC lost on exchanges
PSA to Kiwi Bitcoiners, one of my portfolio companies Stacked (formerly LightningPay) is giving away $20 of BTC to people who sign up to stack sats. It's hands down the easiest way for Kiwis to stack BTC in NZ.
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PSA to Kiwi Bitcoiners, one of my portfolio companies Stacked (formerly LightningPay) is giving away $20 of BTC to people who sign up to stack sats. It's hands down the easiest way for Kiwis to stack BTC in NZ.
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The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k).
I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt. After that, if BTC manages to hold this price level above 65k and not break down, then the chances of a structural bottom increases significantly.
BTC is currently attempting a bottom, but all the pieces are not yet in place, the next 3-6 weeks will be telling.
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3 things happen at the end of bear markets.
1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles).
2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price
3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)
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3 things happen at the end of bear markets.
1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles).
2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price
3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)
Show more