10,000 POSSIBLE FUTURE PATHS A random-walk simulation trained on BTC accounting for power law degradation of returns. She's optimistic, I think between 28th and 50th percentile is reasonable. i.e. 2028 top between 241k-413k It's a simulation, NOT my prediction.

10,000 POSSIBLE FUTURE PATHS A random-walk simulation trained on BTC accounting for power law degradation of returns. She's optimistic, I think between 28th and 50th percentile is reasonable. i.e. 2028 top between 241k-413k It's a simulation, NOT my prediction.

Dear Fidelity, if you're looking for bottoms, you're never gonna find it when searching for a bullish narrative. 2026 : Strategy Treasury FUD, Quantum 2022 : FTX implosion 2018 : BCH split, Hash Wars 2014 : Mt Gox implosion

💥🎙️ Are we at the start of the LONGEST BULL MARKET in Bitcoin history? I spoke to @WillyWoo on the podcast, who says the 4 year Bitcoin cycles have broken down and Bitcoin will now follow longer macro business cycles. 6-8 year bull market? LFG! 🚀

"SUPERCYCLE" is just another way to say BTC breaks out of 4 yr cycles and follows global macro markets. No asset in history has followed a programmatic clock except BTC. BTC's supply shock is now TOO SMALL to make a difference. → BTC follows global macro here on in.

Opus 5.5 puts BTC signatures breaking in the next 2 years from quantum or classical maths at… Quantum: 0.5% Classical/AI: 0.8% ->1.3% total risk FLIPSIDE: survey of analyst expectation is for BTC to return >200%

There’s 2 types of “taxes” governments use to plug deficits. 1) Tax on income and 2) property confiscation Confiscation has 2 types: - Debasement which hits the poor who save in cash and do not own assets - Wealth taxes which targets the rich who don’t own money, they own the means of production The former makes the poor poorer and leads to civil war and revolution The latter destroys the means of production, the economy collapses and the country fails

I’m going to be brutally honest here. A part of me didn’t want to publish any of this. I’ve been asked repeatedly to use some of this sentiment data to trade, and I’ve often urged people not to. I’m a long-term HODLer myself, and I've seen how painful it can be to try to time your Bitcoin buys. But I find myself in an interesting position. Because some of the sentiment data I’ve been sitting on has been extremely high-signal. Historically, buying during low readings has produced stronger returns than buying during high readings. That’s a big claim. So it deserves scrutiny. But the longer I’ve spent with this data, the more confident I've become that I’m sitting on something valuable. So today I’m going to share the strongest (though slightly counterintuitive) signal I’ve found so far. Not greed. Not fear. Desire. How badly the crowd WANTS Bitcoin to pay off. I’ve tracked tons of different emotions in Bitcoiners’ language, using data spanning most of the past decade. I've learned a lot and seen many positive correlations, but this one stood out above all others. I’ve talked about desire before. But today, I want to show you what Bitcoin’s returns looked like after the highest and lowest readings historically, and why that matters for Bitcoin today.

If I give you a price target I'll make a sucker out of you and me. I'll be wrong because the tops are highly chaotic in nature. You'll be influenced by it, maybe you'd even make a sell decision based on this random number in the future. REALITY: Finding tops is akin to forecasting the weather: clouds form, skies darken, then comes the storm. Someone 2 years out can never predict WHEN and WHERE. It's easier to see it as it approaches. That's how seasoned investors make decisions. 6 years ago I read out a moving number from a model for the upper expected bound for price at any moment, that number got copied across the press and misrepresented. 6 years later people still say I was wrong... likely they remember after 6 years because they made an investment decision based that number. I was a sucker for reading out that number, they were suckers for making an investment decision on that number.

If I give you a price target I'll make a sucker out of you and me. I'll be wrong because the tops are highly chaotic in nature. You'll be influenced by it, maybe you'd even make a sell decision based on this random number in the future. REALITY: Finding tops is akin to forecasting the weather: clouds form, skies darken, then comes the storm. Someone 2 years out can never predict WHEN and WHERE. It's easier to see it as it approaches. That's how seasoned investors make decisions. 6 years ago I read out a moving number from a model for the upper expected bound for price at any moment, that number got copied across the press and misrepresented. 6 years later people still say I was wrong... likely they remember after 6 years because they made an investment decision based that number. I was a sucker for reading out that number, they were suckers for making an investment decision on that number.