Fed odds flipped in four days. The gap is still only 4 points. Eight days out from the Sept 16 decision, @Polymarket has a 25bp hike at 51.5% and no change at 47.5%. Four days ago that was reversed — no change led by 18 points. @Kalshi has the same two outcomes at 52% and 48%. Two unconnected order books landing half a point apart means 51.5% isn't one thin market's quirk — it's the real consensus. What turned it was Friday's jobs report: 162,000 against 56,000 expected. A labour market that strong tells the Fed the economy can take higher rates, so hike bets rose. What kept the hike from pulling further ahead was Waller — his inflation comments left the market unconvinced it has to be this month. Nina flags: the hike-versus-hold split gets the attention, but the cut is already closed — 0.6% for September, 92.65% for zero cuts all year. So the fight isn't direction, it's which meeting. "Hiked by October" prices 62.5%, above September's 51.5% — if September passes, the market expects October to pick it up. The last CPI before the decision lands this week; the next isn't until mid-October, too late to matter for Sept 16. Polymarket's consensus is 3.4%. Below that, and the 51.5% goes back. NFA.