The biggest move on the board last night wasn't a stock or a coin. It was a contract on whether the US 10-year yield touches 5.2% this year — 70.4% to 35.75% in one session. Thirty-five points, gone. The rest of the ladder went with it: 5.1% from 90% to 72.5%, 5.5% from 15.4% to 8.7%. The book expires December 31, 104 days out, on $33.3k of 24-hour volume. What triggered it was 5.9 basis points. The 10-year went from 5.006% back down to 4.947%. It had crossed 5% for the first time this cycle only the session before. Falling back under the line mattered far more than the size of the move — the market spent one session unwinding half of the "yields only go up from here" trade. Equities read it the same way: S&P 500 +1.14%, Nasdaq +1.69%, and the VIX down 12.82% to 15.44 from 17.71. The Fed had hiked 25bp the day before and signalled higher rates for the next two years. The bad news landed, and so did the last of the selling. Next up: tonight's pre-open read, watching whether the 10-year climbs back over 5%. Further out, the October 28 Fed meeting is now 50.5% hike against 49.5% hold — the first time hike has been in front — on $1.67m of volume, the biggest book on the board. An actual coin flip.